NBA Finals Prediction: The Unavoidable Teabag

This long layover between the conference finals and the finals has really brought me back down to Earth. If I had written this preview on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, or even Wednesday, I'd be picking the Magic. Playoff excitement will do that to you sometimes. You get swept up in one team's momentum, and it causes you to lose sight of reality, and you find yourself clinging to shreds of hope that symbolize what would make this postseason the most memorable. For me, last year, this phenomenon led to me trying to convince everyone that the New Orleans Hornets were going to make a run all the way to the NBA finals. It's fun to root for these new and exciting teams. It's like rooting for Santa Clause. This year, it seems to have manifested itself in my misplaced "belief" that the Magic had all the right kind of mojo going on right now to beat the Lakers, therefore making the Celtics look great for having taken them to 7 games in round 2. Luckily, this waiting period has calmed me, and I am now bringing you a very grounded and realistic perspective. My emotions have settled and I am thinking more clearly. That 5-day handgun waiting period law really does make a lot of sense.


Before I begin to make my prediction, I'd like to state that unlike the people at Nike and those fucks at the league office, I am thrilled that we didn't end up with a Kobe LeBron finals, because I believe the Lakers are superior to the Cavs in every way, and it would have been one of the most anti-climactic moments in sports history.


Now, you can certainly make a compelling case for the Magic:



I ripped into Dwight Howard earlier in this postseason for still needing to develop effective post moves. However, as I have watched him more and more during these playoffs (I basically never watch the Magic during the regular season if they are not playing the Celtics), I have finally arrived at an appreciation for what a dominant force he actually is. That I always thought him overrated was just a product of me not realizing exactly how athletic he was. His ability to run the court is tremendous for a big man, and he is a very dangerous player when he moves his defender out of the paint and they run pick and rolls with him. In transition, his ability to get down the court quickly and establish position leads to a lot of easy buckets and trips to the free throw line.

Rashard Lewis is a matchup nightmare for anybody. It's hard to imagine Pau Gasol defending him out on the perimeter. He and Hedo turkoglu, with their size and shooting range, give any defenders nightmares. Rafer Alston's quickness could give Derek Fisher trouble. Mikael Pietrus and Courtney Lee have been playing at an incredibly high level throughout the postseason. Marcin Gortat has done a great job of spelling Dwight.

The play of the Magic has improved steadily throughout these playoffs, and it's hard to imagine them playing at a higher level than they are right now. Were it not for two incredibly heroic LeBron James performances, they would have swept the Cavs. They've played the Lakers twice this season, and won both games.

It all seemed to make sense around this time yesterday. You can't argue with that type of momentum.




However, as I slept last night I started envisioning how this thing will actually go, and I woke up this morning feeling very centered and having no doubt in my mind that the Lakers will win this series. Here's why:

- Yes, the Magic are 2-0 against the Lakers this season. However, Jameer Nelson dominated in both of those games, and they were still very very close. Plus, I would imagine that these matchups carried much more urgency for the Magic than they did for LA.

- LeBron James absolutely tore the Magic apart. But, nobody was there to help him. I expect Kobe to do the same thing as LeBron, but there will be some key differences: A) Kobe's coach will be sure to get him the ball in favorable scoring positions B) Kobe has a more polished game, and can score down low with his back to the hoop C) Unlike LeBron, Kobe has good teammates and getting them involved makes the team play better. The statistical impact may not be as great as what we saw from LeBron, but the overall impact (I expect) will have a much more profound effect on the series.

- Do you feel like the Lakers were ever really tested in this postseason? They certainly let their guard down against a Yaoless, Tmacless, pesky Houston team. But, there was no sense of panic, no real sense of worry. That was the most un-game-7-like game 7 I've ever seen. There was never any doubt, and they really don't even seem labored at this point. Just taking care of business.

- We've all spent so much time this season talking about how difficult it is to defend Rashard Lewis (well, at least I know Celtics fans have ever since KG went down). However, in this case, it is also very fair to ask how Rashard Lewis will defend Pau Gasol, who (kill me please) is an increbly saavy and versatile scorer inside (I hate him so much). He will give Lewis fits, and he will also most likely draw some key fouls against both Lewis and Dwight.

- You can't lose sight of Lamar Odom in the Rashard Lewis discussion. The best way to defend a 6'10 tweener with range is with another 6'10 tweener with range. With the exception of KG, who could be better suited to defend Rashard Lewis than Lamar Odom?

- DJ Mbenga is 7 feet tall and can eat up fouls against Dwight.

- Trevor Ariza is a very athletic ballhawk, and I think he will do a good job defending Hedo Turkoglu (to whom he only gives up 2 inches).

- Dwight and Kobe will both spend a great deal of time at the free throw line in this series. Big advantage: Lakers. The Cavs shot free throws horribly last round. Dwight, obviously, is shaky at the line (yes, I know he shot 70% last round....call me when he does it over the course of a season).


The Prediction: Lakers in 6. I've been preparing for this since KG went down in February.

Flatline Blue and the Taste of Loss: The Roomofzen Tries To Live Up To Its Name

The only disappointing thing about this team is the way that they went out. It would have been much more appropriate, and much more telling of the season they had, for them to go out fighting and clawing for victory. That didn't happen. But, we can't complain. This Celtics team defended their title valiantly all season, and they never let any setbacks turn into excuses for them to mail it in. They gave us everything they had. Unfortunately, last night, they had nothing left. And I'll thank them for that, because it's not often you see a team completely empty themselves.

I still feel upset about last night, not upset at the Cs, but just because it was upsetting to watch. We started to see signs that this team was done in the second half of game 6 when they uncharacteristically pissed away a lead (sorry for not being more eloquent). But, it was clear last night that the Celtics' tank was empty. Orlando hasn't been able to hold a lead in the fourth quarter throughout this entire series (let it dwindle down in game 1, lost it in games 4 and 5). But heading into the fourth last night, with the Celtics barely breathing, the Magic sharpened their focus and squeezed the life out of the Cs. The Celtics let a lot of shots go uncontested, they were sloppy, and they couldn't finish. Paul Pierce's two missed free throws and Kendrick Perkins' three consecutive missed layups on one possession were tell tale signs that this team was exhausted.

I should say something like "Tip of the hat to the Magic. They were able to weather some tough setbacks in this series. They have some great shooters, and they create a lot of tough matchups." But, I'm still bitter, especially because with both teams at full strength the Celtics win. So, what I have to say would probably come out filled with backhanded compliments like "Dwight Howard impacts the game in so many ways that no other player can. Once he actually learns how to play basketball, he'll have a real shot at becoming one of the best big men this game has ever seen". And, I certainly don't want to do that.

We'll have a lot of issues to tackle this offseason, the biggest being the futures of Leon Powe and Glen Davis. I wouldn't be surprised if Big Baby played his way right into a big contract during this postseason. Don't expect the Celtics to overpay. Remember, they wouldn't overpay to bring James Posey back. All the reports I read last offseason indicate that the biggest priority is making sure there will be enough room to retain Rondo and Perk (in 2010 and 2011, respectively), as the organization views the two of them as the bridge out of the big three era and into the future. Will Glen Davis be the third part of that bridge? Tough to say right now, but I expect that we'll know where the organization stands soon enough.

We're going to spend a day or two reflecting on everything that has happened, and then we'll be counting down the top ten moments of this season. PLEASE send us an e-mail at oracle@roomofzen.com with your votes on both the top moment, and how you think the top ten will shake out. We'll hopefully have a reader quote for each moment. Be sure to include moments that you think would be in the bottom half of the list (as some of those are more memorable).

After a brief staff meeting, here are some of the nominees to be on our Official Roomofzen Top Ten Moments of the 2009 Season:

Opening Night, Paul Pierce in tears as the trophy is brought to him by the Celtic greats

November, Celtics come from behind to knock off the Raptors, KG wags his finger in Calderon's face

Two days later, Paul Pierce hits a buzzer beater to sink the Hawks

Election night, the Cs grind out a tough victory in Houston, I get yelled at by my fiancee for refusing to change the channel (in the final minute of the game) to the announcement of the new president, causing us to miss the official announcement.

Ray Allen hits a big three to seal a victory in Philadelphia

The KGless, TAless Celtics defeat the Cavaliers in Boston on a Friday night in March. Big Baby is ejected, LeBron clangs a dunk right off the rim.

KG's (temporary) return inspires the Cs to victory on a Friday night in San Antonio

A Sunday afternoon in March, the Celtics lose to Orlando, but Paul Pierce passes Robert Parish to become number three on the all-time Celtics scoring list (behind Bird and Havlicek)

Round 1, Game 2, Ray Allen wins it for the Celtics with a last second three pointer. About an hour later, we see Tommy Heinsohn at the Fours. He exclaims "It's time to wet the whistle" and orders a bloody mary and a shrimp cocktail

Round 1, Game 5, with KG in street clothes and Ray Allen fouled out, Paul Pierce leads the Celtics to a 2 point overtime victory.

Round 1, Game 7, Celtics seal up a victory in one of the greatest first round series in NBA playoff history.

Round 2, Game 4, Glen "the raging animal" Davis hits a last second jumper to give the Cs the victory and even up the series.

Round 2, Game 5, Despite being down double digits with just over 5 minutes to go, the Celtics find a way to win at home and take a lead in the series. The highlight was Stephon Marbury scoring 12 points in the first 6 minutes of the fourth quarter. Ray Allen hit a big three to seal it for the Cs.

Again, please email oracle@roomofzen.com with your picks for top moment, your top ten moments, and please let us know if we've left some out.

For now, I will refuse to go quietly in to baseball season. Let's all hope that Carmelo, KMart, and Chauncey can be 2009's version of Pierce, KG, and Ray.

This game is beautiful.

Game 6: Yes, Please Give Dwight More Touches

Physically, there are few athletes who can match Dwight Howard. What the guy has been able to accomplish thus far in his young career is incredible. However, this point is where the rubber finally meets the road. It's probably hard for Dwight to hear people questioning his game, because it may be the first time it's ever happened. Sure, people have questioned his mean streak and his killer instinct, but this has to be the first time people are actually criticizing his game. Kendrick Perkins has shut him down this series. Once he gets about a foot outside the charge circle, he cannot score. He has no post game whatsoever. He's airballing baby hooks!

I'm sure it's frustrating for him to hear people say that he doesn't deserve more touches. I predict Dwight will take a huge leap next season as a player, because this is the kind of thing that will force him to develop his game more this summer. It really seems like he hasn't developed at all. While LBJ comes back every season with a new facet of his game tightened up, Dwight is still having the same issues (swatting the ball out of bounds on every block, unable to score on any player that keeps him more than an arms length away from the rim, incompetent at the free throw line) that he has always had. I'm not bashing him. It seems like life on planet Dwight has been pretty sweet thus far. But, he SHOULD be a better player than Kendrick Perkins, and he has not been in this series. He needs these types of failures if he is ever going to become one of the all-time great big men that this league has ever seen.

So yes, please, give Dwight the ball tonight. As long as Rashard Lewis doesn't have it, I won't be worried.