Foil in the Oven: All Class

This is a little shorter today because I was up late last night writing a paper, there were no games last night, and I have work at 6 AM today. But, we'll be back to full length tommorow.



I was feeling a little uneasy as I drove to the grocery store yesterday. These off days are tough to take, and they are only a little taste of the tough times that lay ahead when Finals end. The withdrawal that one feels at the end of the NFL season is utterly depressing, and is characterized by weekend restlessness and emotional outbursts. However, the withdrawal that occurs at the end of the NBA playoffs is an all-out assault on the senses. You can't watch THAT much basketball THAT intensely every night for nearly two months and not feel physical withdrawal when the stimulation is removed. The prospect of this withdrawal being so near had me feeling pretty bummed out, and I was scanning WEEI in hopes of finding something exciting happening in the world of sports. My shoulders dropped as I was suddenly hit with the one headline I had spent months hoping would not come. Michael Strahan, 15-year New York Giant and key piece to a potential repeat Super Bowl championship, was retiring.

I'll be honest, I wasn't expecting this news. As I stated a couple of weeks ago, I really thought that he was just trying to avoid training camp as he did last year. Ever since Michael first began pondering retirement, I believed that I would be angry if he decided to pass up the opportunity for a repeat Super Bowl title. After having played 14 seasons without a championship, how could he pass up the possibility of 2 in a row?

But, much to my surprise, I did not become upset when I heard this news. Instead, I thought about how much Michael Strahan has given to the Giants. I replayed in my mind the image of him finally hoisting that championship trophy in February, the final reward for 15 years of hard work and loyalty, and I was happy for him. The man is going out on top. What better ending could any Giants fan hope for?

Would I feel differently if the Giants hadn't won Super Bowl 42? Yes, I think I would. I believe that Michael can still play at a high level, and I wouldn't like knowing that there was more that he could have accomplished individually and new heights that he could have helped this team reach. I'd also probably be more emotional. I'd be waxing poetic about what a great warrior he was, and what a well-rounded defensive player he was, and anything else that I could think of to make sure that people knew what a great player that the league lost today. But things have been different since February 3rd. I don't need to say anything about what kind of player Michael Strahan was. If you don't know that he was one of the top defensive ends of all time, then you don't know pro football. But, what's more important than anything that you'll find in his career statistics (which are very impressive) is that he was a champion. I'm happy at peace with his decision because I believe that this is a very dignified and fitting way for him to go out.

As far as the Giants are concerned, it's going to be a big blow. The fact that Strahan would have still made such an impact after 15 years in the NFL speaks volumes about what kind of athlete and football player he is. The Giants defensive line was a complete nightmare for opposing teams last year. You had to help on Strahan. You had to help on Umenyiora. But, you couldn't help on both of them because you also had to worry about guys like Justin Tuck, Barry Cofield, and big Fred Robbins . The strength of this defensive line helped to cover up some pretty glaring holes at linebacker and in the secondary. This unit will still be excellent, but it will not be as dominant as it was last season.

I will touch on the Giants, particularly the Shockey situation, when the NBA Finals are finished. We are planning months of solid NFL preview for you. But, we have to take things one step at a time.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------



I don't know what I can say about this game tonight that hasn't already been said. The Celtics are the better team in this series. They have a chance to crush the Lakers' souls with a win tonight. People keep saying that the series is going to change when it gets back to LA, but how much can it really change? The Lakers are not as physical as the Celtics, and that fact remains regardless of where the game is held. The only way that I can see a potential change in the series would be if the Celtics reverted back to their road form from the first two rounds of the post-season. But, I'm confident after seeing how much they improved on the road in the Detroit series. I'm not saying I'm expecting a sweep. But, I'm also not expecting, at any point, to think to myself "wow, maybe I was wrong. Maybe the Lakers really are better than I thought."

One story that has really not gotten enough attention in this series is the play of Ray Allen. He plays Kobe very well, and he clearly knows how to frustrate him. Even during the big 7 minute comeback on Sunday night, Kobe never really looked like himself. He was totally out of his element. I'm confident that Ray will continue to play Kobe tough. But, truth be told, Kobe will probably go off one of these next three games and it doesn't even matter. The Celtics played the one-man show Lakers twice in the regular season and stomped them both times. Kobe hasn't been the problem. It's everyone else that has been the problem for the Lakers. Kobe can't be as destructive if everyone else isn't executing.

I'd really like to see Eddie House unleashed at some point during these three games in Los Angeles. Every time that I see him on the bench, he looks like Doc has him on a leash bolted to the floor. One nice thing about having as much depth as the Celtics do is that Doc can suddenly insert a very capable high-energy guy like Eddie late in a series to inject the team with some adrenaline. Think about the Cleveland series, and what a difference he was able to make in that game 7. In LA for three games, unleashing Eddie could be just what we need to gain an edge.

Children of Bodom covering the Final Countdown. These guys are sick guitar players.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Often times when I am up late writing a paper, like last night, I like to listen to old editions of the Basketball Jones podcasts. I listened to a great one last night recapping the action from one of my favorite nights of the season, the night when the Celts ended the Rockets winning streak in Houston and everyone in the world agreed that Glen Taylor was a complete ass for his KG comments. So, I definitely recommend listening to this, episode 279. The highlights are Tas' comment about Jessica Simpson at the start, and JE Skeets reading Glen Taylor's comments about Garnett and then exclaiming "WHAT A FUCK!"

Expect a very extensive Foil in the Oven tomorrow.

Foil in the Oven: Some Bold Predictions

Before I move on to my predictions, I want to touch on this Bill Simmons piece about KG, and some of the conversations that I have had with people since it came out. As much as I love Simmons, I can't get behind this piece. Ted e-mailed it to me immediately after it came out with the question of "why is this coming out now?" Neither of us could think of an answer.

I would say "why write this piece at all?" But, in fairness to Simmons, he has been expressing these worries about KG throughout for the past couple of months. So then, the ultimate question is about the timing. The Celtics are still in the thick of things, and this piece is going to have no validity if the Celtics win a championship. Ted thought that Simmons might have some type of ulterior motive with the piece. Perhaps it was intended to bring out more in KG, or perhaps it was written as some type of reverse-jinx. Simmons does this stuff a lot, and frankly as a reader I could do without it. If this article was written for these purposes, then he just wrote a magazine article wasting every one's time.

Regardless of when and why it was written, I can't help but be totally opposed to the sentiments expressed in it. I expressed these feelings in a posting exchange with Jim over at Green Bandwagon . Jim wrote a great piece about the way that we have a tendency to view a performance from a guy like Tim Duncan differently than we might view a performance from KG because our our pre-conceived notions. I thought this posting was particularly relevant in the wake of the Simmons piece.

Here is an excerpt of my response: "Jim, this is a great post. I particularly enjoy it after reading Simmons article about KG on ESPN.com. I love Simmons, but I really hate that article. The guy was brought aboard the team with the second worst record in the NBA. Within months, he completely changed the culture of the team, led the charge in the biggest turnaround in history, and re-ignited a once proud fan base. What could be more clutch than that?
I’ve always said (even when he was on the T-Wolves) that I didn’t see why everyone was so convinced that Duncan was better than him. Certainly, Duncan has the rings, but KG’s career isn’t over and he would have won those same rings in the same position. He may not guard big men quite as well, but I think he’s equal as an overall team defender and I certainly think that he runs the floor better."

Jim's response was: "About three months back the whole Bird vs. KG thing flared up and I came down strongly on Bird’s side in part because I’d want the ball in his hands at the end of a game. And someone pointed out that Bill Russell wasn’t a scorer down the stretch either. I liked that comparison in a way. Why does everyone compare KG to Kobe Bryant? No one does it the other way around. Garnett brings way more to the table than he takes away from it."


I found this exchange particularly satisfying and reassuring. I love Jim's comparison with Russell, and I stick to my guns that Duncan hasn't done anything in San Antonio that KG couldn't have done.

Look, as I said, KG totally changed the culture of this team in a matter of months. If that's not clutch, I don't know what is. He has led the charge for one of the greatest defenses in NBA history. He affects the game in so many ways that don't show up on the stat sheet. He gives everything he has to the Celtics every night. We're down to the final four now and anything could happen. Are we really going to put it on his shoulders if this team doesn't win a championship?

Tim Armstrong with Lars and the Bastards:



Viking is a good disc.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PREDICTION #1: The Celtics Will Out the Pistons in Five Games


For the record, this is not something new that I am predicting after watching Game 1. In my playoff predictions post back in April, I wrote for my Eastern Conference Finals prediction "Celtics over Pistons in 5-- Easier than you think." Now, some of my predictions were shaky (Phoenix over San Antonio, Washington over Cleveland, Tornoto over Orlando) but some were right on (from the first round: "Detroit in 6-- Philly will make it tough") and three of my final four are still in the picture so I feel pretty good.

So, I believed in April that the Celtics would beat Detroit in five games. I stated on Monday, before this series got going, that "I'm confident because this will be a hard fought series between two teams that play the same style, and the Celtics play that style better." Game 1 affirmed this. I think the Celtics will capture their first playoff road wins in this series. And, as is typical with this Detroit team, I expect the Celtics to win the series easily even though it always feels close.


Will I be surprised if it goes 6 or 7? No. How could you be after the last two series. But, I'm sticking with 5.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PREDICTION #2: Michael Strahan will be Back on the Field Next Year

Come on, we've done this before. And not just with Michael Strahan. If he was really going to retire, he would have already announced it. Strahan wants something. Last year, he didn't want to go to training camp. He probably feels the same way this year, which is fine with me (has Orlando Pace ever been to one?). There have also been a lot of reports out there that Strahan wants more money than he is due this season (4 million dollars). But, Strahan's reps have said that money has not been an issue, and the Giants have said that they are willing to fork over more money for Strahan's return. So, if money is an issue, it shouldn't be for long.

I have said many times that Strahan is the key to the Giants making a serious run at at successfully defending their championship, so perhaps this is just wishful thinking on my part. But, keeping the team in limbo to avoid training camp is a tactic that he, and others, have used in the past. Furthermore, it seems like a player that considers retirement for this long winds up on the field more often than not.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PREDICTION #3: When We Look Back on this PostSeason, Kobe Bryant Will be What We Remember


Look, I hope I'm wrong on this one. I want more than anything to remember this post-season as the year of the Celtics winning banner #17. But, don't you get the feeling that Kobe is in the middle of putting together one of the all-time great playoff runs in history? As I said on Tuesday, I don't see the Spurs winning this series. So, I felt very strange last night going to sleep at around 11 with the Spurs up by 16 points. Ordinarily, I don't turn off Kobe Bryant, but I was exhausted and it just didn't seem like the Lakers had any chance of coming back.

When I woke up this morning, less tired and thinking more clearly, I ran for my computer. I wasn't the least bit surprised to see the headline. In fact, I would have been more surprised to see that San Antonio had closed out the double digit win. That right there tells you something about how great Kobe has been.

Here's the thing. Kobe didn't check out for the first 2 and a half quarters. He was trying to get his teammates involved. This is the player that he's become and that's one of the reasons that he put together an MVP season. He started off playing a team game, and feeling out the way things were going to go for that night. Then, when it became necessary for him to take over, he did. I went to bed right around the end of the "team basketball" portion of the game, but I've seen the Kobe takeover enough times to know what it looks like. Game 2 against Denver is a classic example. But, this was him doing it against the Spurs!

Kobe will continue to involve his teammates in these games, but it must be nice to know that he can win these games on his own if need be. I expect Gasol to match up better against Duncan than he did last night, and I expect the Lakers as a whole to play much better than they showed us in Game 1. Look, the Spurs are the Spurs and they will probably take 2 games. But, I don't even see this going 7.

It hasn't always been nice to be Kobe's teammate, but this year's squad certainly seems to be enjoying it. Kobe is helping them look good on and off the court. Found this article on Ball Don't Lie.



-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PREDICTION #4: When The Celtics Have Their Second Unit in Tonight, Jeff Van Gundy Will Say "I Just Don't Think There's Enough Offense on the Floor Right Now for Boston."


Can't he think of something new? Did we have to hear that eight times in two games? I'll add in another prediction, which is that every time Paul Pierce makes a nice play Van Gundy will belittle him by talking about how much he's "improved" and "learned" as if he is some young player who is just now starting to play well. I will then get extremely frustrated and yell at the TV.

Big Blue Repeat?

The World Champs are two weeks into their off-season regiment, and today was the first day that the media were permitted to enter the locker room. Unfortunatly, Roomofzen was not able to be there. But, we have read many accounts of what was said, and I also made sure to spend more time than usual (which is ALOT) thinking about the Giants today.


I love what we're hearing from Eli Manning. and Amani Toomer.

I expect great things from Eli this season. The guy has all the makings of a great quarterback. Physically, all the tools are there. Emotionally, the guy is always level, so I know that the emotional highs of winning the Super Bowl and getting married over the off-season will not have any effect on his game. The guy has put in more hours in the Giants practice facility than any other player since joining the team, and last year we began to see some of his teammates (most notably Plaxico Burress) following his lead in their off-season training regiments.



That's not to say I expect Manning to be perfect. This will only be his fourth year as the starter, and he still has a lot to go through. But, he's shown that he has the right makeup to handle that adversity. He'll always be scrutinized, and he has nobody but himself to thank for much of that. Certainly, being born a Manning was out of his control, but he signed up to be one of the most scrutinized players of all time when he became so vocal about playing for New York instead of San Diego. But, if Manning can handle the scrutiny he has faced over the past three seasons, this year should be a breeze. He bought himself a considerable amount of breathing room in February.

At this point, no writer in New York or anywhere can assert that Manning has been a bust. He has taken the Giants to the playoffs in every season, and in only his third year as the starter he turned in one of the most unlikely and prolific Super Bowl runs in history. I think that the confidence he gained during the post-season will show in his improved performance this season. Before the Super Bowl, John Elway said on ESPN that the level of his play rose to the next level the season after the first time he took Denver to the Super Bowl (in which they got SPANKED by the G-Men!). He said that the confidence he gained during the post-season (in which he played the best football anyone had seen from him) is what helped him elevate his game. People have compared Eli to Elway throughout his career (Elway was vocal about not wanting to play for the Colts, and was criticized heavily during the early years in Denver). I look for Eli to follow a pattern similar to that of Elway, and have his best and most consistent season in 08-09.


Needless to say, I feel comfortable with the Giants offense. The offensive line, which was one of the top units in the NFL last season, is returning intact. A more confident and poised Manning will be handing off to Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward (who just re-signed in March), and Ahmad Bradshaw. Logic tells us that Jacobs and Bradshaw, because they are so young, should be much improved. He will be throwing the ball to a healthy Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer (his value cannot be understated; look how valuable he was last year and look what happened to this offense when he went down in 06-07), a healthy Jeremy Shockey, and three young up-and comers in Steve Smith, Kevin Boss, and Sinorice Moss. Talk all you want about Dallas being loaded up on offense, and certainly TO, Jason Witten, and that big O-line make them a matchup problem for everyone. But, I belive that the best offense in the NFC East calls East Rutherford home.

I think this team has a great chance to repeat, but there are three big questions that need to be answered. And, suprisingly, they are all on the defensive side of the ball.


First of all, what is Michael Strahan going to decide? His return is key to the success of this defense. That's not to say that the G-Men wouldn't be able to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks without Strahan. Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Fred Robbins, and Barry Cofield are all top-notch talents. But, you can't remove a player as dominant as Strahan and not expect to see a drop-off.

Second, how the hell did we become so thin at linebacker so fast. Kawika Mitchell and Reggie Torbor were big losses, and I can't say that I feel confident in this group at the moment. I think Antonio Pierce is one of the best in the game, and I love Mathias Kiwanuka's athleticism, but somebody is going to need to step up. Now, many mock drafts have the G-Men taking Jerod Mayo from Tennessee in the draft. I would love this pick, and I think he's athletic enough to step in as a starter right away. But, there are still two problems. One, this means that we have a rookie and a third-year player who is still learning how to play linebacker flanking Antonio Pierce. Second, one of the biggest knocks on Mayo is that he can't stay healthy. Gerris Wilkinson and Chase Blackburn have both stepped up in key situations in the past, and I know that Giants coaches really like what they have seen from Zak DeOssie. Does any of this mean that I'm confident? Obviously not.

Third, can the secondary continue to play as well as it did in the post-season? I think so. Corey Webster is a great talent. I'm not sure exactly what wasn't working for him earlier in the season in '07, but he obviously conquered it in time for the post-season. Aaron Ross exceeded all of my expectations in his rookie year. I expect both Webster and Ross to be much improved this season. Sam Madison, R.W. McQuarters, and Kevin Dockery are all very capable, and I love the depth at cornerback. At safety, the loss of Gibril Wilson certainly hurt (the Raiders are overpaying in an attempt to bring in guys to turn things around. This is a fine quick-fix, but certainly not a blue print for long-term success. Al Davis needs to be stopped!). But, I love the addition of Sammy Knight. James Butler made some big plays last season, and Michael Johnson was the unsung hero of our rookies. He stepped in late in the season and played great. I look for him to be much improved in '08.

Fourth, will punting be an issue? Obviously not, the Giants have the greatest punter ever to walk the earth.