Day 2

Don't say I didn't warn you about Houston.


On deck for today:





Jazz at Lakers, 3:00

True Blue Jazz: Yeah, so most people seem to have no hope in the Jazz. Be you a Lakers fan hoping for a sweep, a "famous" person... aka, a mainstream media guy... predicting the Lakers in 5 or 6 or a Jazz fan hoping the Jazz don't get totally embarrassed, you'd have to say/admit things don't look good for the Jazz. They've been struggling for the last bit, both at home and on the road (though that's a season-long issue). Injuries come and go, tensions may be rising, the coach may be giving up (or just trying to goad the team), the players may be packing for the off-season (and a new home?), etc. That, though, is what it is. And it'll all be dealt with at some point. Right now though, the main thing ahead is the first round playoff series with the Lakers.




Forum Blue and Gold: The Lakers have mismatches all over the place to exploit in this series. If they are smart, they should score plenty.

That starts inside in the paint. Mehmet Okur cannot keep Andrew Bynum off the low block or alter his shot in close, and Pau Gasol has a huge size advantage inside. We saw this some in the last regular season meeting between these two. When isolated, Boozer (especially a hobbled Boozer) was virtually helpless on Gasol. There are members of the Jazz — AK-47 — that love to come from the weak-side and block shots — Gasol and Bynum need to be aware and be ready to give up the ball.

The other big problem for the Jazz is at the two — Ronnie Brewer cannot slow Kobe Bryant. In the first two games this season against the Jazz, he averaged 38 points a game. Again, the Jazz can do things to bring help, but that leaves other players open if the Lakers share the ball.


Roomofzen Note: The Lakers are your 2009 NBA champions. Get the broom out.








76ers at Magic, 5:00


Liberty Ballers: We all know the Magic are a thousand times better on paper. We all know they have Dwight Howard. And we all know what the Sixers need to do to win. (3-point differential, defensive rebounding and free throws.) So, instead of polluting your minds with more useless numbers and strategies, I'm simply going to tell you in a couple sentences how excited I am, and leave you with a few YouTube clips to get you pumped!

How excited am I? As excited as I've ever been to watch a basketball game. Need I say more? On the flip side, I'm as nervous as a 6-year old school boy about to ask his secret crush if she wants to share a bag of cheddar fries. I think the game will go one of two ways -- good or bad -- there's no in between.

Don't ask me why I have faith in this 41-win Sixers team who has disappointed me time after time this season, because I won't have an answer. There's just something a special about this group of guys, and the sky's the limit.



Third Quarter Collapse: The book on the Orlando Magic this season is that they're a one-dimensional, three-point shooting team that struggles to win when their threes aren't falling: In a post called "Die By It," Depressed Fan points out that Orlando shoots 40.5% from three-point range in its wins and 31.5% in its losses. While I don't believe their fortunes are inextricably tied to the three-point shot, it is indeed an important part of their offense, to say the least.

And it will be even more important in their first-round playoff series against the Philadelphia 76ers. Orlando's biggest advantage over Philadelphia is its ability to bomb away from beyond the arc. In the regular season, Orlando averaged 10 made treys per game, while Philly averaged just 4. If those figures hold up in the postseason, the Sixers will have to make up for an 18-point deficit from the perimeter alone. That's a tall order, especially against Orlando's elite defense.



Roomofzen Note: Goddamit! The Celtics were supposed to get Philly. How did this all go so wrong?









Heat at Hawks


Peninsula is Mightier: "The Heat's interior defenders will need to be wary of the Hawks tendency of over-driving. They get to the foul line a fair amount (25.4 free throws/gm during the regular season), but shot only 73% as a team, good for 28th (3rd worse) in the NBA.

Staying on the subject, should the Hawks get into foul trouble, expect coach Mike Woodson to go to his bench quickly. Apparently, he has a deep fear of his players fouling out and will go to great lengths to avoid that at all costs.

The Hawks big guys (Al Horford and Josh Smith) can get into foul trouble, and the primary backup for them is Zaza Pachulia, who isn't as good a defender as his aforementioned teammates. Attacking the rim and getting to the foul line should be a key point on the Heat's dry-erase board at practice.

Dwyane Wade has never lost a 1st round series when healthy, and he is very healthy. I'm just sayin..."


Peachtree Hoops: Outside of Bibby and Marvin, the Hawks have a tendency to lock in on shooting. Whether it is methodical penetration by Joe or under control back down by Al or "I might as well be blind folded" drive by Josh or Zaza, the Hawks tend to get tunnel vision. Sometimes this is ok. It works for the Hawks. They can draw fouls. They can out athlete a lot of guys at the end. Of course, I wish there was more ball movement, more cutting to the basket, but that is not just going to start happening at this point in the season.

Which means the Dwayne Wade help block could come to the front and center of this series. Rarely is someone that athletic, that quick, also that good at blocking shots. He can slip down off his man in half a step. Hawks players cannot feel satisfied with simply beating their man. Dwayne Wade will be lurking.


Roomofzen Note: I'll be rooting for Miami. I picked them to win and the more Dwayne Wade I can see, the better. Beasley, don't make me look bad!






Hornets at Nuggets, 10:30


Hornets 24/7: "First, expect some cross matching in the backcourts as both teams prefer to keep their best defender on the opposing team's point guard. Dahntay Jones will open defensively on Chris Paul, while Billups slips over to handle Rasual Butler. Vice versa, Rasual Butler will open defensively on Billups, with Paul taking Dahntay.................................................One interesting thing to note is that Chauncey Billups is perfectly in Rasual Butler's wheelhouse defensively, being rather slow and easy to defend on the drive because of Butler's length. In four games this season against the Hornets, Butler has held Billups to 35% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from deep while Billups has only earned .5 free throws more per game due to the defensive pressure. Billups has also only managed 4.8 assists per game. I expect more of the same as Butler sticks to him like glue."


Pickaxe and Roll: Chris Paul is their team. Denver took to trapping him off screens and it has worked beautifully so far. Paul averages just 3 turnovers a game, but against the Nuggets he's averaged 5.3 turnovers a game and that's his highest rate of slip ups against any team. Paul has averaged 20.8 points and 11 assists against the Nuggets this season. He shoots 81% from the foul line and likes to get there any way he can. Paul will work the refs as much as he can and has a knack for being able to initiate contact and draw calls. If Denver can corral Paul in this series the Nuggets can win it in 5 games. If Paul has his way the Hornets will be almost impossible to beat.


Roomofzen Note: Who cares who wins, I just want it to go as long as possible.


I'll computerless until Tuesday, but will be in the Garden tomorrow night. Enjoy the games everyone.

The Calm Before the Storm

As I sit here on the eve of the NBA post-season, I can barely contain myself. I have felt this way before, but it has never been quite like this. Last year I spent this night weighing the matchups, looking rosters up and down, and making the final decisions about what teams I was going to support in each conference. When all was said and done, I decided that my number one team would be Golden State. I expected that they would beat Dallas (as did many, the Don Nelson thing was huge plus they had proven to be a tough matchup in the regular season). This would be ideal because they were very exciting to watch, they had a chance to pull a huge upset, and I could relish in that whole "nobody believed in us thing." I changed my desktop backround to a big warriors logo, and spent a lot of time on the Golden State message boards getting up to date. I still wore my Paul Pierce jersey during the games to avoid any real confusion. I was still a Celtics fan. But, during the 2007 NBA playoffs, I was a Warriors supporter.

This year will be different.

As soon as Utah knocked Golden State out, any pro-Warriors thoughts went out the window, and I settled for being able to watch Phoenix-San Antonio, and marveling at LeBron. When I see the Warriors play now, I have no special feelings about them. In essence, I rented myself to them for a couple of weeks. It didn't mean anything. Like a cheap whore, I gave myself up temporarily in exchange for the illusion of genuine playoff excitement. What choice did I have? Anyone who knows me knows that nothing would have made me happier than being able to watch some Celtics playoff basketball. It just wasn't in the cards. This wasn't the same, but it was the best option I had.

Looking back, I couldn't be more thankful for the opportunity that lies ahead. At this time last season, I never imagined the Celtics would be sitting in this position. A seven or eight seed? Sure, after all it is the Eastern Conference. But, the number one seed! 66 wins! The best team in the NBA! The transformation has been remarkable. As currently assembled, the Celtics are better and more championship-ready than I ever could have dreamed given the pieces that they had. What Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers have done has been remarkable.


Before I give my predictions, I would like to make a few comments regarding some statements that I have read today. I spent some time reading some Laker fan posts on ESPN.com, and soon became enraged. The comments alleged that the only reason the Celtics have been successful is that they were helped out by the "Good Old Boy Celtics Network." Obviously, whoever wrote this post believes that (A) The Celtics were only able to acquire Kevin Garnett because Kevin McHale wanted to help out Danny Ainge and (B) The acquisition of Garnett, and only the acquisition of Garnett, is what put the Celtics in their current position. So, in defending this Celtics administration, which has been outstanding, let me say the following:




First, the turnaround of the Celtics was not a one-year miracle. It was a five year process in which the organization did a great job of scouting, drafting, developing young players into valuable assets, and cutting money off the books. More often than not, this policy was unpopular. How many times have we heard Ainge blasted on the radio. How badly did we all want the Celtics to land Brandon Roy or Randy Foye in 2006? However, the Celtics came out of that first round with the ever-famous "Theo Ratliff's expiring contract" bargaining piece and were able to select Rajon Rondo later that round. How bad did we all want Allen Iverson last year? Would that have put us in this position? Judging by what happened in Denver, certainly not. Ainge had a plan in mind all along. Keep developing as many trading assets and acquiring as many big expiring contracts (Ratliff, Brian Grant, The Kandi Man) until the big opportunities come along. Despite the fact that many in Boston called for his head and made public pleas for him to start moving those pieces, he waited until the right time.

Second, Kevin Garnett WANTED to come to Boston. He wanted to come to Boston because we had Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. In order for us to get Kevin Garnett, we first had to make the move for Ray Allen. Think about it, no matter how expansive your "old boy network" may be, you can't acquire two well-established all-stars unless you're giving up something. Ainge did a brilliant job of dealing for Allen while still holding on to the right pieces (mainly Al Jefferson and Ratliff) needed to get Garnett. McHale wasn't just making Ainge happy. He was granting Garnett's wishes and helping his team out.

Third, the Timberwolves certainly got more from the Garnett trade than Memphis got from the Gasol move. The Lakers gave up nothing for Gasol. And, while we're at it, Gasol was a nice addition BUT he's not Kevin Garnett. Gasol is soft, and he doesn't bring one tenth of the intangibles that the Big Ticket does. We had the pieces to get KG while keeping our core intact. The Lakers didn't have shit to give. That's why we have KG and they have Pau Gasol.


Finally, I will say this, I have doubted Danny Ainge many times before. But, I can't argue with what he's done. I heard an interview with him recently on the Big Show, and I found what he had to say very re-assuring. In the interview, he made it clear that the Celtics were planning on trying to trade their 2007 draft pick regardless of where they fell in the lottery. "Imagine that" he said "If we had pick one or two, we really thought that we could have gotten Garnett without giving up Al Jefferson." He went on to explain why he had spent so much time developing players and why he had waited so long to make a move. His plan was ambitious. He wanted to blow it all up except for Paul Pierce, gather as many young pieces and expiring contracts as he could, and sit tight until he had a chance to make Paul Pierce a champion. If that opportunity never came, he could trade Pierce and continue re-building. The plan worked. So, if you are one of those who believes Ainge fell ass-backward into good fortune, I urge you to look back on the moves that he has made in his career with the Celtics. On their own, many of them are unimpressive. However, when you see how they all fit together, you can't help but feel re-assured about the future of this team.


Now that I have that off my chest, here are my playoff predictions.

First, Ballgame's picks (which he explains in his two posts below):
Boston over Atlanta in 4; Wizards over Cavs in 7; Boston over Wizards in 7; Orlando over Toronto; Detroit over Philly in 7; Detroit over Orlando; Celts over Detroit in 7 for the finals.

Lakers over Denver; Houston over Utah; Lakers over Houston in 7; Spurs over Phoenix; Hornets over Mavs; Spurs over Hornets; Lakers over Spurs for the finals.

Lakers win the title over the Celts, giving Kobe the Playoff MVP.


Babcock's picks will be out soon.


My picks:

Boston in 4
--seriously, did you expect anything else?
Detroit in 6
--Philly will make it tough
Toronto in 6
--this is my 2008 official "who gives a shit" series
Washington in 7
--looking forward to watching these two teams battle it out

then

Boston over Washington in 5
--payback for the regular season
Detroit over Toronto in 5
--we got a preview of this one last Sunday

Then Boston over Detroit in 5
--easier than people think

Out West

Lakers over Nuggets in 5
--The Lakers have that look right now
Hornets over Mavs in 5
--I hate what the Mavs have done this year
Phoenix over San Antonio in 7
--Shaq in the playoffs, Steve Nash out for blood
Utah over Houston in 6
--Utah is that team you don't want to forget about

Then Lakers over Utah in 6
--too much Kobe
Phoenix over New Orleans in 7
--I'd love to see the Hornets win, but I don't see how it could happen

Lakers over Suns in 5
--Again, easier than expected



FINALS

Celtics over Lakers in 6

--The other comment that pissed me off was a Laker fan predicting LA over Boston and saying "Do you actually think Boston can stretch this series out and make it close?" First of all, the Celtics are better than the Lakers, and anybody that watched the two teams play this year knows that. The Celtics are too deep, and the longer the series goes the more it favors them. To me, the Celtics winning in 6 would mean that the Lakers had played really well.

Playoff MVP: Paul Pierce

Statement Made

Well, it's official, the Celtics are playoff-bound. They also now have a five game lead and the tie-breaker over Detroit for the top spot in the East. Maybe we all knew after the first pre-season game in Italy that this was a playoff team, but with a group this good, I'm not going to take anything for granted. I want to enjoy every step of the process.

Last night was an important win for many reasons. Perhaps the most significant is that the Celtics really answered the bell for the first time in a while. Ever since KG went down, this team has lost the dominant form that it had during the first 30 or so games of the season. It seemed like a little bit of the swagger was missing. The Celtics showed us last night that they still have that higher gear that they can shift to if need be. You can't expect a dominant performance every night. It's a long season. But last night was the most important game this team has played in over a month, and they played with a sense of urgency from the moment they stepped on the floor. They had to. Ray Allen was 1-9 from the field, and still I never felt for one second like we were going to lose this game. Much like the first two matchups, this felt like a playoff game.

I can't say enough about the way that Rajon Rondo has developed this year. The guy is going to have a great future. He has all the skills and all the intangibles that you could want from a point guard. He played up to Chauncey Billups' level for the whole game last night, and his drive and dunk on Richard Hamilton (on which a flagrant foul should have been called) gave us the shot of energy that we needed. He's scrappy on defense, he pulls down offensive rebounds, he's a great passer, and he's turning into a very effective scorer. Our offense takes a noticeable halt whenever Eddie House comes in. I'm very excited at the prospect of having Sam Cassell come in and spell Rondo while House plays the 2 spot.

Finally, last night was vintage KG. He was hitting shots from all over the court, adjusting shots on defense, and he showed no ill signs of his injury. This was the best game that he has played in a while, and I can't wait to see him in the playoffs. The most impressive moment for me came right after Rasheed Wallace had commited his fourth foul. KG took it at him, made a sick move to get Wallace of his feet, and forced foul number five. Because he had just gotten his fourth on the last play, the most important thing on Sheed's mind at that point was probably not commiting a fifth foul, and KG's moves are so good that he had no choice. While we're on the subject of Sheed, he played great last night. This Pistons team is well-seasoned, and they're not going to go away quietly. If last night's energy and intensity (Ray Allen elbowing Rip in the throat, Rondo getting slammed to the court) are any sign of things to come when these teams lock horns in the playoffs, this will be one of the best series in recent memory.