If you're reading this, I can only assume that you didn't follow my picks last week. Those who did can probably be found camped out at the nearest street corner.
5-10....not a great showing. But, weeks 1 and 2 are always the toughest to pick. The NFL is the most unpredictable of the 4 major sporting leagues, and this unpredictability is one of the elements that makes it so great. I was way off on some, and missed by half points on others. Nevertheless, it's great to be picking games again. I feel much more confident as we head in to week 2. Here they are. Home teams are in caps.:
Raiders +3 over CHIEFS: Even as the home team, I don't see how Kansas City can be favored here. Despite putting up 24 points against Baltimore, the Chiefs were dominated in all phases of the game. Most notably, they were only able to muster 29 yards on the ground. Oakland, on the other hand, looked great on Monday night. They outgained the Chargers, the had the edge in time of possession, and they held even in first downs (19 a piece). Richard Seymour may no longer be playing for another Super Bowl, but he is playing for a new contract and it showed. The guy made a huge impact with virtually no practice time. I love the Raiders here. I still meant all that bad stuff I said last week about them though.
TITANS -6.5 over Texans: I wasn't right about much last week, but I think I was dead on about Houston not being able to live up to the hype and about the Jets being better than you think. In that same post, I said that the Texans can't be a favorite in the AFC South because they are nowhere near as good as the Titans. I guess we'll see if I was right. That was a staggeringly lopsided affair in Houston last week.
Patriots -3.5 over JETS: This is tough. The Jets looked fantastic on the road last week, while New England looked completely out of sync at home. The Jets defense looks better than ever, while the Patriots are down Teddy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, Mike Vrabel, Richard Seymour, and now Jerod Mayo. All this, plus the fact that this game is in the Meadowlands, says to me that the Jets should be giving points. Since they're getting points, it seems like a no-brainer that I should pick them. But I can't. Not when we've got a rookie head coach and quarterback taking on Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and especially not when they've got defensive backs talking shit just days before suiting up against Randy Moss.
Bengals +9 over PACKERS: I'm such a dumbass. Look, the Packers are a really good team. And, there's no question that year 7 of the Marvin Lewis era is shaping up to look just like year 6. HOWEVER, the Bengals have a habit of showing up, playing hard, and then losing by about three when they play really good teams. Knowing that, I can't in good faith advise you to take the Packers by 9. But, if you really lay it down on the Bengals, you're going to feel like a real dickhead if you're wrong. Best to stay away from this one. Bet on Tennessee.
Vikings -10 over LIONS: I've never heard commentators so captivated by a 110 yard, 1 touchdown passing performance. I would rather bathe in shit than watch this game.
Saints even over EAGLES: We can't just dismiss the Saints win last week because it was against the Lions. They didn't just beat them. They fucking killed them. They did everything they should have and more. I'd lean towards New Orleans even if Donovan McNabb were healthy.
Panthers +6 over FALCONS: Of all my blunders last week, none is more humiliating than Carolina being my "lock of the week". But, I'm far from quitting on the Panthers. Things got out of hand pretty quickly last week. Jake Delhomme is a hot-cold guy and he could play great against Atlanta.
REDSKINS -9.5 over St. Louis: This will make the Redskins wish they played in the NFC West. They'd probably take home the division crown.
JAGUARS -3 over Arizona: the Eastern seaboard has not been kind to the Cardinals.
Seahawks +1.5 over NINERS: Here's your lock of the week. I'm drinking the Seahawks kool-aid, and I'm not yet ready to say the Niners "look good".
Bucs +5 over BILLS: The Bills love to tease us into believing in them during these Sunday and Monday night performances. I don't know how much they have left this week.
Steelers -3 over BEARS: The Bears are interesting at home here, particularly with everyone questioning Jay Cutler. But, if you followed us last season, you know I always have a hard time picking the Bears because I can't hitch my wagon to a team that relies on flukey special teams plays and converts kick returning defensive backs into number one receivers. Jay Cutler will play better, but they need to run for him to be successful. They won't do that against Pittsburgh. Also, I think the absence of Urlacher is much more crushing than the absence of Polamalu (not because I don't think Polamalu is elite, but just because I think the Steelers are better built to absorb that loss).
Ravens +3 over CHARGERS: The Ravens are a very quiet contender in the AFC. Even at home, I don't think the Chargers have the cajones to hang with them.
Giants +3 over COWBOYS: Did you see the way Tampa was able to run on Dallas? This Cowboys team is very ordinary. I can't wait for Sunday night.
Colts -3 over DOLPHINS: This is my one to skip. But, I will just say that I think this line should be wider.
UPDATE: I forgot to add this one:
Cleveland even over BRONCOS
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