Foil in the Oven: Week 7 Picks

I was 6-8 last week, compiling a losing weekend record for the first time. Unlike Ocho Cinco, I will not offer any excuses. And, as embarrassing as it is to fall below .500, I couldn't be happier with what is currently happening in the league.

There are many who are opposed to parity, preferring instead to watch a handful of dominant teams. I prefer what we currently have, because it means that you have to watch every game. You can't take any outcomes for granted. Even more importantly, it means that we can look forward to lots of meaningful end of season games as the playoff picture shakes itself out. Finally, we have been seeing incredibly exciting games. If NFL games were one minute shorter, I would have been right about 4 more of my picks. Sure, I'd love to have those wins, but I can't help being excited.

Over the past two years, we've been able to predict at least one of the Super Bowl teams without difficulty. That's not the case now. I have no idea who will win this week, never mind February. I have never been less confident in my picks, and that's the way it should be...........


Buffalo over San Diego: There is huge potential for the Chargers to win big in this one. I just want to get that out there. Either Buffalo is going to win a tight game or San Diego is going to roll, and I feel like both are equally likely. But, I'm basing my pick on two trends that have been pretty reliable so far this season. The first trend is that teams playing on opposite coasts have not looked good. In fact, I don't believe that a west coast team has won on the east coast yet this season. The second trend is that teams coming off a bye week have looked rejuvenated and extra-prepared.



SIDENOTE: I will remember last week's Sunday night game as the night the Charger Girls put themselves on the map. Dallas and Oakland obviously have great traditions, and recently my understanding has been that the Redskins cheerleaders were the league's best. However, the Charger girls really made a statement against New England. I'm not somebody who usually notices or spends time discussing the cheerleaders, but how could you not notice them last week? There were times when the camera was focused on a clear cleavage shot for 15 seconds straight (possibly because the game was a sleeper). I can't say enough in support of this production decision. I checked with Babcock before writing this to make sure I wasn't the only one and he said he definitely noticed too.



Chicago over Minnesota: The Vikings are not good. I've been saying it all season, and I don't think anybody can argue with me after last week. They had the Lions at home, and were it not for Dan Orlovsky accidentally taking a safety that game would have gone into OT. Their other two wins were the result of seemingly flukey defensive and special teams plays (although the win over Carolina was more legit than the win over New Orleans). In a way, they're sort of like a poor man's Chicago Bears.



Pittsburgh over Cincinnati: Thank god the Falcons/Bears game ended up being great last week because I nearly choked on my own vomit watching the Bengals and Jets (and the Jets throwback uniforms weren't helping). The downgrade from Carson Palmer to Ryan Fitzpatrick has rendered the Bengals unwatchable. On the flip side, the Steelers just had a week off to do some healing.




Tennessee over Kansas City: I don't think this Tennessee undefeated run is going to last much longer. In fact, earlier this week I was going to take Kansas City. They have been a tough out at home. But, the combination of the bad karma that is due to them after refusing to free Tony Gonzalez and the fact that they will be without Larry Johnson this weekend was enough to change my mind.



Dallas over St. Louis: It will take a lot more injuries and distractions than this to make Dallas as bad as the Rams.






Miami over Baltimore: The Dolphins are dangerous and I can't figure out why John Harbaugh would want to rile them up. I like the fish at home.



Giants over 49ers: I said two weeks ago that I was uncomfortable with the Giants being at the top of the power rankings. As upset as I was with Sunday night's loss, I feel much better about the rest of the season. The Giants weren't good enough for the kind of expectations that were being laid out for them by the media. That doesn't mean I don't think they're good enough to win the Super Bowl. They are. But, they're not just going to cruise through the regular season like the dominant Patriots and Colts teams of the past few seasons. There just aren't any teams like that out there this year. They will however, cruise past the Niners at the Meadowlands this weekend.



New Orleans over Carolina: I've been a little too high on both of these teams so far. I expect this to be high scoring, and I give the Saints the edge in a shootout.



Houston over Detroit: Kill me.



Raiders over Jets: I have a feeling that Favre throws at least two INTs here. I'm going with the opposite coast trend again.



Indy over Green Bay: Close one here. I really like this Packers team, but I can't get that ass-whooping the Colts put on the Ravens out of my head.



Washington over Cleveland: That Browns game on Monday night reminded me of the Bills Monday night home game against Dallas last season (except that obviously Dallas came back to beat the Bills). They were at home on prime time, which has not been the norm for the past few years. The fans were outstanding. There was just a feel throughout the entire game that this was going to be Cleveland's night. For that reason, I need to see how they do this weekend before I can know whether or not they have really turned things around.



Tampa Bay over Seattle: With Matt Hasselbeck out and this game being played in Tampa, there is absolutely no way the Seahawks win this game. It's a lock.



Denver over New England: I can't take the Patriots. How could I after last week?




College Pick of the Week:

Missouri (+6) over Texas: This is really more wishful thinking than anything. A win for the Tigers would totally shake up the college football world. And, it could definitely happen. The burnt orange played great last week, but that secondary is still very concerning. We know that Mizzou is lethal through the air. Texas is coming off a big win that for many associated with the program already makes this season a successful one. Missouri is coming off a frustrating loss and is looking to prove that they are still one of the nation's best teams. Put these factors together, and you've got the recipe for an upset in Austin.

Foil in the Oven: Week 6 Picks

The Michael Beasley watch is officially on. If you read this blog over the summer, you know that I thought the Bulls were crazy to pass on Beasley, and I also thought that all the knocks on him were totally overblown as a result of the media's Derrick Rose lovefest. Beasley looked solid last night, accumulating 21 and 7 in 28 minutes of action. The guy is going to be a superstar in this league for a long time. If not for the threat of Greg Oden, I'd already be proclaiming him rookie of the year. We'll be tracking Beasley's progress all season long just to show how powerful the sports media has become. They can convince you to make decisions that go against all logic. I just don't understand how you could see Michael Beasley and Derrick Rose play in college and not think Beasley the better NBA prospect.

Quick Celtics thoughts: Patrick O'Bryant looked great on Wednesday night, and I feel good about having him come off the bench for the nights when Perk picks up 2 fouls in the first two minutes. People have been talking about Bill Walker (and his dunks were sick) but O'Bryant was the most significant performer in my mind. I'm also really happy that we still have Tony Allen. I can't stress enough how valuable I think he is to the Cs as a shutdown defender and a penetrator.

Yes, preseason basketball is exciting, and it reminds me what a great stretch of the year we are entering. But I won't talk any more about it now. A lot of dreams will be crushed this week in the NFL, as we take our next step into weeding out the pretenders.

I was 8-6 last week. Not a great showing, although I was looking pretty money after the one o'clock games. The late ones did me in. Let's shoot for better........



Baltimore over Indy: The Colts officially suck. I've given them the benefit of the doubt over the past few weeks. I chalked their poor performances up to the injuries to Peyton Manning and Jeff Saturday. It made sense. I figured things would fall in to place eventually. They had to. These are the Colts. The Colts, Chargers, and Patriots are always good. Well, obviously this year is different. I have serious doubts about Indy after seeing that fluke win last week. Eventually, their offense may start clicking, but I doubt that it will happen against the Ravens. Look for McClain and McGahee to have big days against this soft Indy run defense.


Minnesota over Detroit: It's very clear now that none of us were giving the Lions enough disrespect in the offseason. It's time that we start giving them the lack of respect that they deserve. They are one of the league's most irrelevant teams, and they are hands down the worst team in the league's second worst division.


New Orleans over Oakland: Al Davis' press conference after Lane Kiffin's firing was so hard to watch. I know this man's place in NFL history, and I hate that my only memory of him will be as a senile old relic who refused to acknowledge that the game had passed him by. Lane Kiffin didn't con anybody. There was nothing in his past to indicate that he was ready to be a head coach in the NFL. In fact, I think he did great considering the circumstances. There was no coach that could have made the '07 Raiders successful. Furthermore, I'm a firm believer that it is ALWAYS a bad move in the NFL to change coaches mid-season. The Raiders are building around a young group of players with tons of potential. What they need more than anything else is stability this season while they gain experience. This move will most likely hurt them. And, what has been accomplished? The BEST case scenario is that Cable keeps Kiffin's systems in place and doesn't make any changes. I have no problem with the firing of Kiffin, but it should have come after the season.


Jets over Cincinnati: You know how I feel about the Bengals.


Chicago over Atlanta: I've been impressed with Matt Ryan, and obviously Michael Turner was a great acquisition. Last week was a huge win at Green Bay. Atlanta is headed in the right direction. But, the Bears are playing too well.


Carolina over Tampa Bay: These NFC South games are always tough to call. But, I don't think there's any question that the Panthers are the class of the division.


Washington over St. Louis: What's scary is that Washington has already finished their road division schedule. Things will only get easier for them.


Miami over Houston: Hey, why not. Good for Miami. They've made headlines for discovering that Ronnie Brown is a more effective quarterback than Chad Pennington (not all that surprising), but their defense has really been the key to the last two impressive wins. I think they'll make it tough on the Texans this weekend.


Denver over Jacksonville: The Broncos are a lock at home.


Philadelphia over San Francisco: I hate to do this, but make note that I am picking against the Niners for the first time in week 6. Hopefully our many readers who watched the Patriots last week have a better understanding now of why I thought there was so much potential in this San Francisco team. I still think they have a shot to win the NFC West. However, I can't put my faith in JT O'Sullivan against the pressure of Jim Johnson's defense.


Green Bay over Seattle: There is something very strange happening with this game. The line is different everywhere. ESPN has the Packers favored by 4. Sportsbook.com has the Seahawks by 1.5. Depending on where you look, it varies from the Seahawks giving 2 to Green Bay giving 6. So, if you're planning on wagering this weekend (and by no means am I encouraging you to do so), you should explore your options. I understand the confusion, but I'm surprised that the handicappers are not presenting a more unified front. I understand the argument for Seattle. They need this game after getting blown out last weekend, and they are tough at home. But, I still believe in this Packers team. My initial reaction was to take the Pack, so I'm sticking with it.

.............on second thought, you may want to stay away from that one. Too many unknowns. And, if the handicappers can't agree on it, what makes you think that you know what's going to happen?


Dallas over Arizona: If Anquan Boldin was playing, I'd be screaming upset in Arizona. However, without him, the 'Boys are too strong.

......Now, on to more important business. Can't you just feel the Cowboys starting to crumble? TO has downplayed whatever drama was happening last week, but we know better. Where there's smoke, there's fire. That's the way it is with TO. Adam Jones is already in trouble again, despite having men on a constant rotation who are being paid to keep him out of trouble. Wade Phillips and Jerry Jones feel that no action is warranted on the part of the team. As a Giants fan, this could not be going better. I'm not trying to make too much of this, but it's just that we've seen the way these things usually play out in Big D....





San Diego over New England: This is a tough one to pick. The Patriots have dominated recent matchups, but this isn't that same Patriots team. But, the Chargers are banged up. Chris Chambers is out. Antonio Gates is banged up. LaDainian "you don't do another man's dance" Tomlinson (why don't people call him that instead of LT?) is banged up. Merriman is out. So, I think things are pretty even. Basically for me, it comes down to the fact that the Chargers need this game more. A few months ago, I was already circling this on the calendar as one of the best night games of the season. Now, I'm just glad the NLCS will be on so I can watch that instead.



Giants over Cleveland: I've stated several times that I did not want the Giants to draft Eli Manning (and they didn't, but you know what I mean). I wanted them to take Sean Taylor. But, as soon as the trade was made to get Eli, I was on board. What choice did I have? I have stuck by him all along, and I couldn't be happier to finally see him playing with such consistency. I'm not ready to go overboard and start proclaiming him the superior Manning brother, but I think it's safe to say that he's arrived. He has had great starts to seasons before (In week 5 of 2006, he was an ESPN early season MVP candidate after a white hot start. Four weeks later, ESPN said that the trade the Giants made may have been the worst in NFL history), but there has always been the fear of inconsistency. I don't have that fear anymore. I have more confidence in this team than I have had in a long time. I'm not talking perfect season or even perfect division record. Hell, they may even lose this game. But, in the past I would worry about a loss causing the team to totally spiral out of control. That's not the case anymore.





College Pick Of The Week:

Texas (+6) over Oklahoma: I've always preferred the name "Red River Shootout" to "Red River Rivalry". Shootout sounds much more badass, and it is much more appropriate for this game, which features two of the nation's most prolific quarterbacks. I think Colt McCoy is the better of the two, and I think that the Longhorns shake up college football even more this weekend. I've been a supporter of the BCS all along, because I think it has given us the right champion in just about every year. But, if things continue as they did last season and this season, changes are going to have to be made. There's too many good teams for us to continue putting our faith in the current system.