Foil in the Oven: Week 5 Picks

How can I possibly show my face here again after last week's picks. I stand by my reasoning, as it has served me well in other weeks, and I will continue to pick games the way I always have. There's no way anybody could have predicted what went down in Week 4. Overall, it will probably be remembered more as a crazy college football weekend that marked the true beginning of the Rich Rodriguez and Houston Nutt eras. But, things were equally as crazy in the NFL. I got it wrong on many counts. Here's my shot at redemption....

Giants over Seahawks: It makes me really uncomfortable to see the Giants currently sitting atop the power rankings. Don't get me wrong, I think they're very good. And, as a Giants fan, I'm happy to see them finally getting the respect that they were denied in the offseason. But, I don't really feel like they've earned it yet. Two of their three wins have been against bottom feeders, the Bengals took them to overtime, and they didn't even play last week. I do have high hopes for this team, and I think the Bengals will give a lot of teams trouble on their way to 0-16. I just think the Giants have a lot more to prove. That being said, they're a lock to beat Seattle at home on Sunday.


Chargers over Dolphins: 2007 aside, the Dolphins split with the Patriots every year. That was a nice win for them in week 3, but we can't read too much into it. They can't throw the ball at all and their running game has been inconsistent. I think the Bolts win this one easily.


Panthers over Chiefs: The Chiefs finally showed some signs of life last week, making me look foolish for picking so definitively against them. I was particularly impressed with the play of Derrick Johnson. But, I'm still not convinced that they're anywhere near even being considered a middle of the road team.

Redskins over Eagles: I love what the Redskins are doing. They've looked great for the past three weeks. This game is really a draw for me. But, with Brian Westbrook's status still uncertain, I have to lean towards Washington.

Colts over Texans: Both of these teams have been extremely disappointing thus far. Fresh off their bye week, I expect the Colts to start turning things around.

Bears over Lions: One thing I took away from Chicago's Sunday night victory is that Kyle Orton isn't as bad as people think. He's not a game changer, but he's an accurate passer and he can move the chains. Watching him made me realize that I may haven't been giving this Bears' offense enough credit.


Packers over Falcons: Despite this lopsided loss, I'm sure Matt Ryan will always remember his first time playing at Lambeau Field.


Titans over Ravens: This should be a great game. I'd love to pick Baltimore, but I can't. The Ravens won't be able to run against the NFL's best defensive front. Joe Flacco has looked good, but I don't think he's ready to shoulder the load in this one.


Broncos over Buccaneers: I've never been the biggest Mike Shanahan fan. In the post-Clinton Portis era, he's always killed me in fantasy by refusing to indicate where he's leaning in terms of running backs. And, he's never really seemed to have any personality. But this press conference, in which he stated that Al Davis must like Lane Kiffin more than him, was awesome. Anybody who publicly mocks Al Davis is ok by me.


Cowboys over Bengals: I'm an Ocho Cinco fan, so I just need to acknowledge something here. People have been criticizing him for his poor play, and blaming his lack of production on his antics. Remember that he tore his labrum right before the season started. That injury, not his antics or namechange or anything else, is really what's affecting his play. This week, Chad told reporters in Dallas that he'd like nothing more than to team up with TO in Dallas. I think this would be great for the NFL and for me, as it would turn the Cowboys into even more of a circus. And, Jerry Jones might just be crazy enough to do it.

Note: Chad also said he would score, and then kiss the star in Dallas to show his respect for the Cowboys organization. He may do this, and the Bengals may give the Cowboys all they can handle (but I doubt it.....Dallas is too strong up front), but they won't win. They won't win next week either, or the week after that. I don't know why I'm so certain they will be 0-16. They just have that feel to them.


Bills over Cardinals: Last week I acknowledged that I thought the Cardinals might lose because they were on the East Coast, but that I was still picking them despite this reasoning. Obviously that was a mistake. So, maybe I should pick them this week since they are back in Arizona. But, I think the Bills are good enough to win on the West Coast. And, I think the loss of Anquan Boldin this week is too significant for the Cards to overcome.


49ers over Patriots: The Niners are at home, and I think Frank Gore will have a big day against this New England defense. Eventually I'll stop picking San Francisco to win every week. It hardly seems like an effective strategy. But, I like them over the Pats here.


Jaguars over Steelers: With the Steelers ground game being reduced to what it is, I can't pick them this week. A team that pass protects as poorly as Pittsburgh has this year needs to be able to run the ball. This could be a long day for Big Ben. But, look for this one to be close as I still love that Pittsburgh defense.


Saints over Vikings: I drafted Drew Brees early in all my fantasy leagues for a reason. He will tear apart the Vikings secondary to the tune of 400 yards (a number that has become somewhat common for him).




College Pick of the Week:


Wisconsin (+2.5) over Ohio State:

I love the 08 Badgers, and I think they will be out for blood after blowing a comfortable lead in Ann Arbor last week. Wisconsin's defense is the best in the nation at forcing turnovers (5 in one half against Michigan), and that means trouble for the young Terrell Pryor. The Badgers are without question the better team. And, this game is in Madison, which makes it a lock.

Week 2 Preview

"THESE are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value. Heaven knows how to put a proper price upon its goods; and it would be strange indeed if so celestial an article as FREEDOM should not be highly rated. Britain, with an army to enforce her tyranny, has declared that she has a right (not only to TAX) but "to BIND us in ALL CASES WHATSOEVER" and if being bound in that manner, is not slavery, then is there not such a thing as slavery upon earth.......

'Tis surprising to see how rapidly a panic will sometimes run through a country. All nations and ages have been subject to them. Britain has trembled like an ague at the report of a French fleet of flat-bottomed boats; and in the fourteenth [fifteenth] century the whole English army, after ravaging the kingdom of France, was driven back like men petrified with fear; and this brave exploit was performed by a few broken forces collected and headed by a woman, Joan of Arc. Would that heaven might inspire some Jersey maid to spirit up her countrymen, and save her fair fellow sufferers from ravage and ravishment! Yet panics, in some cases, have their uses; they produce as much good as hurt. Their duration is always short; the mind soon grows through them, and acquires a firmer habit than before. But their peculiar advantage is, that they are the touchstones of sincerity and hypocrisy, and bring things and men to light, which might otherwise have lain forever undiscovered."

--The Crisis, Thomas Paine, 1776






If you haven't yet read Babcock's piece on Tom Brady's injury , you should. Like Forrest Gump in Washington, DC, he said it all. I could go on and on about how this injury only seems appropriate after all the time that Bill Belichick has been so cavalier about his use of the injury report (and I do think it's funny that it happened the first week that Brady was off the report) or the year after we saw Belichick throw complete caution to the wind by leaving Brady on the field, with 25 and 30 point victories already in hand, to put an exclamation point on dominant victories. But, I won't. I've always thought that the Patriots were unfairly criticized for those actions, and I won't change my tune. Furthermore, despite what you may think, I'm not happy. The NFL needs its stars on the field, and Randy Moss needs Brady to get a ring. I don't mind seeing things shaken up, but I was not ready for this earthquake. Patriots fans haven't been the only ones affected by major injuries, but certainly this was the biggest blow to any team this season (and I can't imagine how it could be topped). I don't feel the need to delve any deeper into what Babcock said, but I will just leave Patriots fans with several thoughts to help them in this time (If you had Brady in fantasy, there is nothing that I can say to you):

1) This will be the most liberated you've felt in a long time. There is no pressure whatsoever for the rest of the season. 2) Bill Belichick would not have kept Matt Cassell for 4 years if he wasn't good. 3) Just try to remember that you don't even know these people. I'm sure there are fans out there who have been making themselves miserable ever since Sunday. Maybe a dad who has yelled at his children. Maybe somebody trying to get clean that fell off the horse. Maybe just somebody that has been tormenting themselves over a lost season. Well, stop fucking whining. You're team has won three rings in the last 5 years. Nobody gives a shit about your feelings. Furthermore, just try to keep in mind that these athletes live very different lives than we do, and they're probably finding ways to enjoy themselves despite these unfortunate circumstances. You should too.

I doubt Tom Brady is going to let depression get the best of him:





I think Osi will be ok too:








This news is not surprising in any way, except when you consider how long it took Shawne Merriman to realize that having two torn knee ligaments might impact his ability to play professional football. I've said all along that I thought his decision to play was foolish. He's so young, and I really think that it would be impossible for him to make it through all 17 games (plus the playoffs). On top of that, the damage that he could do trying to make it through could end his career prematurely. Now that he has made the right decision, I'll give the guy a little credit for giving it a go. He's not a doctor, and I'm sure I would feel like Superman as well if I were as athletic as him. He's up for free agency after 2009, so he was risking his financial future with this. It was incredibly stupid, but a small part of me respects this guy's dedication to the game.....a very small part of me is able to look past how unrealistic, shortsighted, and small-minded the decision was. And don't get me wrong, I still hate that fucking dance.




Anyways, here are the picks. I was 8-7 (didn't pick Thursday game) last week so there's lots of room to improve:

Green Bay over Detroit: It was very apparent to me this weekend that the Lions blow and the Packers don't. The Lions can't run, and Green Bay defends the pass very well. The Lions defense looked completely lost against Atlanta. Green Bay will pose a stiffer challenge.

Oakland over Kansas City: Who gives a shit. But really, I'm going to keep picking Oakland against bad teams. They'll be decent as soon as the pieces fall into place.

Giants over Rams: People say that we still don't really know how good the Giants are, and that's true to a certain extent, but this game falls outside the parameters of that statement. We know that they're better than the Rams.

Indy over Minnesota: The Colts shocked me on Sunday night. I had questions about whether or not they'd cover because of Manning's injury, but I certainly didn't think they'd lose. I like them over the Vikings, who looked like big time pretenders on Monday night.

New Orleans over Washington: Reggie Bush's performance on Sunday hasn't been played up as much as I thought it might. It would be great if he could wow us this season.

Carolina over Chicago: If the '08 Bears are anything like the '06 Bears, then it's hard for me to pick against them because there is always the potential for them to be totally anemic on offense but still magically put up 28 points via fluke 50 yard TD runs, interception returns, and big special teams plays. But, Carolina just beat San Diego without Steve Smith, and they just looked to good for me to pick against them.

Jacksonville over Buffalo: Only because they're at home.

San Francisco over Seattle: Apparently I see something in both the Raiders and 49ers that others aren't seeing. If they both get smashed this weekend, I'll be willing to admit that I might be seeing things that aren't there. I hate the NFC West.

Tampa Bay over Atlanta: Atlanta is not good. Garcia is out in this one, but I don't think it matters. Tampa has 9 quarterbacks. Plus, I'd take Griese over Ryan for one game in a heartbeat.

New England over the Jets: The Patriots hung on to beat the Chiefs despite the shock of their franchise player and starting quarterback going down for the season. The Jets barely hung on to beat the Miami Dolphins despite having everyone healthy and having upgraded significantly at quarterback. I don't care who's at quarterback, give me Belichick over the Mangina.

Arizona over Miami: Holy shit. Plenty of seats still available I'm sure.

Baltimore over Houston: If the Ravens can build some early momentum here, they have of a really great shot for a wild card spot.

San Diego over Denver: I still don't think that Denver is very good.

Pittsburgh over Cleveland: I hated everything I saw from Cleveland on Sunday. Pittsburgh has to be the clear favorite in the AFC now with Brady and Merriman gone.

Tennessee over Cincy: I may never pick the Bengals to win again. The Titans looked great on Sunday despite Vince Young's poor play. Kerry Collins is more than capable of handing off and taking a few shots downfield.

Dallas over Philly: The Eagles are good. There's no question about it. But, they'd need a healthy group of receivers to knock off Dallas. In fact, that's not even true because all their injured receivers suck too. They'd need at least one GOOD receiver to knock off Dallas. DeSean Jackson may be that good receiver later in the season. I don't think he's there yet.






COLLEGE PICK:

USC over Ohio State: I watched Ohio State play last weekend, and it wasn't pretty. They weren't just unimpressive. They sucked ass. Ohio outplayed them. Now, they may be one of those teams that play to the level of their opponent, but I just don't think they're capable of playing to the Trojans' level. I understand that the Buckeyes were in the national championship game last year, but USC was better than them (and were playing much better towards the end of the year). I understand that the Ohio State defense (particularly Laurinaitis and Malcolm Jenkins) are highly touted. But USC's defense is better. I know that Chris Wells is back this week, but he's not 100 per cent and I don't think he's good enough to swing this game in Ohio State's favor.

All that being said, I don't know if the Trojans cover 10.5. I'd throw them in a ten-point teaser with Wisconsin and Georgia. You can't miss there.

*disclaimer: My anti-Big Ten bias may be clouding my judgement here. I have been anti-Big Ten since the fall of 2006. To refresh your memory, that was the year when Ohio State and Michigan fans spent the entire season whining about how they were the two best teams in the country and it was a shame that they wouldn't be playing each other in the national championship. I guaranteed that both would get crushed by their faster and far superior bowl opponents (Florida for Ohio State and USC for Michigan). That being said, I'm sure that Wisconsin should be favored by more than 2 over Fresno State.