Foil in The Oven Returns: Playoff Predictions

"I don't need your fucking sympathy, man. I need my fucking johnson"

--The Dude

I woke up this morning being 26 years old for the first time. That, in itself, is a lot to deal with. By the time we hit ten o'clock, I was trying to somehow make sense of the announcement that not only was Kevin Garnett not playing in round 1 of the playoffs, but he was most likely out for the entire postseason. I had resigned myself to the fact that he just needed rest. I didn't see this coming. Then, around 3:00, the news comes that John Madden is retiring from broadcoasting. I, personally, would have appreciated a little notice before his last game. By 5 o'clock tonight, Danny Ainge had suffered a heart attack. The guy is in great shape. And, he's only 50. I'm now more than halfway there. Needless to say, this was a very complicated day. A lot of ins, a lot of outs, a lot of what have yous. Fortunately, we've been adhering to a pretty strict drug regiment here to keep our minds, you know, limber.


I can't speak fully to the KG injury right now. All I can really say is that I have never been anywhere near this deflated by an sports injury. If there are any Patriots fans out there (so pretty much 3/4 of our readers), please leave some comments about how this stacks up against the Brady injury.

The one thing I was finally able to arrive at that gave me the strength to push on with my day and pump out these predictions was this:

at least this didn't happen last year.

Really, can you imagine how devastating this would have been last year? It's not much, but for now it's all I've got.

So, let's not wait any longer. Here are the picks (the West picks are without comment because I certainly don't watch enough of the West to say anything meaningful).




ROUND 1

EAST

Cleveland vs. Detroit:

The Pistons gave up on this season the minute they sent Chauncey Billups to Denver. They were, of course, open to the possibility of catching lightning in a bottle with AI, but more than anything this move was about Joe Dumars conceding that his group was no longer good enough to make it out of the East. As things currently stand, with a record below .500 and AI literally paying no dividends on the court (I hope this ungraceful exit is not the last we see of him), the question now becomes not who will win this series, but what type of series it will be.

The Pistons have played the Cavs tough this season. Rasheed Wallace has gone on the record as saying that he expects his team to re-gain their swagger once the post-season begins. I do believe in Detroit’s veteran leadership. I believe in the power of their home crowd and in their ability on defense to make LeBron James have to beat them all on his own. However, I also believe I’ve seen him do that before. Since then, he’s gotten better and Detroit has gotten worse.

The pick: Cleveland in 6.





Boston vs. Chicago:

This Bulls team is not the matchup I wanted for round 1. They really improved themselves at the trade deadline, and they've had the look over the past month of a team that could shake up the post-season. All that being said, they have no shot here. If they were a legitimate threat, they would have beaten Toronto last night (the news about KG wasn't out yet, they had something real to play for) at home. The absence of Luol Deng means big production for Paul Pierce. Kendrick Perkins will swallow Joakim Noah. Derrick Rose had a great season, but Rajon Rondo has blossomed into one of the league's premiere point guards. The Celtics have the advantage in every matchup.

The pick: Boston in 6






Orlando vs. Philadelphia:

There is no way Philly takes this series. They have no answer for Dwight Howard and don't have anybody that can shoot, which should translate to a lot of easy buckets in transition off of missed shots for the Magic. The Sixers are also horrendous in the half court, and Orlando’s ball movement should lead to a lot of good looks both on the interior and from long range.

I wanted to actually analyze the matchup here, but all I really needed to do was point out that the Celtics beat Philly on Tuesday night without KG or Ray Allen, and that it took overtime for the Sixers to knock off Cleveland’s athletic training staff last night.

The Pick: Orlando in 5







Hawks vs. Heat:

These should be great games to watch, regardless of the score is when you flip to them. It’s hard not to get excited about a team as athletic as the Hawks facing off against Dwayne Wade. I really want to take Miami here. I think that D-Wade has been just as spectacular as LeBron this season. I’m also excited to see how Michael Beasley performs in his first playoff series. If he is able to elevate his level of play, he could give his team the edge. Miami has really impressed me over the second half of the season. However, while most of the national media has been ignoring the Hawks, they have been playing incredibly consistent basketball. It’s hard not to give Atlanta the edge when you weigh the matchups. The Wade/Johnson matchup will be great to see, and I will be interested to see how much Miami gets out of Jermaine O'Neal. This is hands down the toughest one to pick, so I’m going with my gut:

Even though it doesn’t make sense: Heat in 6.







ROUND 1
WEST (ABRIDGED):

Lakers over Jazz in 4:

Nuggets over Hornets in 7: Note: I don't want to miss one minute of this series.

Houston over Portland in 6:- I know people are saying "nobody wants to catch Portland right now", but I think Ron Artest provides Houston with the mentality they need to advance to round 2.

San Antonio over Dallas in 6:







ROUND 2: EAST

Cleveland over Miami:

Regardless of whether they see Atlanta or Miami, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cleveland coast in round 2. Detroit is a tougher matchup.

The pick: Cavs in 5.





Boston over Orlando:

I'm not sold on Orlando, and there is nothing they can do against Philadelphia that will convince me otherwise. I can't help but wonder if the people who wrote them in as championship contenders last month have been paying any attention at all to what has been happening this month. They were certainly impressive in March (12-2), but they have come crashing back down to Earth in April (4-5 this month, including losses to Toronto, New York, New jersey, and an 18 point loss to the Bucks).

On March 25th, the Magic defeated Boston by 2, and moved the Celtics down to third place in the East. This was the last game in which Kevin Garnett was able to play (and his role was very limited). Leon Powe, Tony Allen, and Brian Scalabrine were all out as well. How could Orlando not have held on to that 2 seed? It's inexplicable. They are not contenders.

Kendrick Perkins will be the key to Boston's success in this series, as he is the NBA's premier Dwight Howard stopper. Throw in the fact that there are serious questions about the health of Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, Boston is tough at home, and that there isn't anybody on the Magic capable of defending Paul Pierce, and this all adds up to a victory for the Cs.

The pick: Celtics in 7







WEST ROUND 2 (Abridged)


Lakers over Rockets in 5:

Spurs over Nuggets in 6:








Eastern Conference Finals:

Cavaliers over Celtics: There are many out there who say that the Cavs win this series even if it involves a healthy KG. I'm not one of those people. I think the Cavs are flawed, and I've felt all season long like the Celtics were the superior team. The two games the Cavs took from Boston this year were, in my opinion, two of the most uncharacteristically bad performances the Celtics turned in all season. Easter Sunday's performance was the worst (Pierce 4-17, totally flat performance, shooting 35% as a team). The statistics in these performances indicate that the Celtics would have lost to most NBA teams on these days. When they play at a level more aligned with their season averages, they have beaten Cleveland twice, including once with Kevin Garnett out.


So, just to clarify, if the Celtics were coming into this series with Kevin Garnett healthy, they would win. They simply have too much front line depth (KG, Perk, Big Baby, Leon, Mikki Moore) for Cleveland to handle.

But, we're dealing with reality here, and the reality is that I can't pick the Celtics to win this series. On paper, the Cavs seem harmless. Mo Williams? really? That's the other big gun? Delonte West? Don't try that shit with me. I'm well aware of what he can and can't do. When you look at the roster, and then you see how much LeBron is able to raise the level at which all of these guys play, you can't help but cast your MVP vote for anybody else. And, believe me, I'd like to.

The pick: Cleveland in 6





Western Conference Finals (abridged):

Lakers over Spurs in 5.








NBA Finals:

Lakers over Cavs in 5.

This is the Lakers' year, and nothing LeBron James does can change that. The Cavs will be totally outmatched in this series. There is no way they can compete with a front line of Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom. Number 24 is pretty good too. Even though he hasn't averaged so few points per game since 2004, I've never been more in awe of him.

More Support For Horse

In recapping his trip to Phoenix for All-Star weekend, Craig Kwasniewski of the association says the following:

"Thumbs down to the crowd control for H-O-R-S-E. Look, I wanted to see it... and so did most of the fans in downtown Phoenix. There was a buzz about the return to an old-school favorite but having very limited seats in the smallish All-Star Block Party killed any chance of me seeing it (lines to get in were around the block). The NBA clearly underestimated the interest of the fans for it."

We said earlier this week that HORSE seemed like a blast, and appeared to be the kind of event that would translate well to the big arena on Saturday night. This quote offers support to my movement to replace the skills challenge with HORSE. It would be the ultimate warm up for the three point and slam dunk contests.





Unfortunately, Craig also wrote a post on February 2nd in which he dismisses the notion that Andrew Bynum's knee injury was karma biting him for what he did to Gerald Wallace, and then senselessly lashes out at Kendrick Perkins and what he calls "the front running KG-Celtics Era". To be honest, I feel like Bynum's elbow to Gerald Wallace and what Perk did to Jason Maxiell in Detroit were pretty similar. I find both to be in a different category than what David West did to Mike Miller, which was clearly not basketball.


I don't understand all the hatred for the Celtics that's out there, particularly from those who seem to want to vilify KG. How could you not love KG? It's not just because he's a Celtic....I had nothing but respect for the way he played while he was in Minnesota. The NBA is all about personality, and there is not a more passionate and exciting player in the league. This is one of the good guys. I just don't get it.




As for Perk, he does need to be more mindful of his propensity for technical fouls. But, I think there is far too little appreciation for how integral he is to the success of the Celtics. He has shut down the league's best centers, including holding Dwight Howard to ten points below his season average both times they have squared off this season. He is one of the most underrated defenders in the league, and his ability to hold down the paint allows much more range for Garnett. He has made great improvements on both ends of the floor since he began with the Celtics, and everyone associated with the team says he has an incredible work ethic. He is an enforcer. There's no question about that. But, that is essential to a team that prides itself on physical play.


Still the greatest album of all time:

Roomofzen Podcast #1

We've been dreaming of doing podcasts for a long time. Babcock and I stumbled upon some technical information this week, and figured we'd go ahead and try to pump one out in about 2 hours. Well, as it turns out, it was two hours before we could even figure out how to record. We finished recording at about 10:45 last night. It is now 7:13 AM, and I can finally publish this post with some confidence that the file we created will actually play.

Is it good? Not really. But, we had a blast. I definitely say "real fast" 3 times in the first 20 seconds. We say that Dan Orlovsky stepped out of bounds last week when it was really 3 weeks ago. I also utter the phrase "Leon Powe has the ability to score at will." But, those things aside, it's not bad. We discuss the Celtics opener on Tuesday, the prospects of the Cavaliers this season, week 9 in the NFL, and Mike Singletary as the 49ers new coach. Babcock loves Singletary in that role, and how could you not after reading this story about his motivational techniques at halftime last week. All in all, it's 69 full minutes of fun. Please enjoy.....

Boomp3.com


If the player shits out on you, here is the link to listen to it in a different window. It works a lot better.


We've got a long way to go if we ever want to approach the level of the BS Report or the Basketball Jones (TBJ in my mind is the sickest podcast out there). But, we've been successfully improving the site all along. Next week: look for us to get more of the staff involved, we will work on a musical intro, we will do some more scripting so we don't ramble as much, and we will answer our podcast e-mail question sent in from Matt in Seattle (sorry Matt, we were rambling, and then suddenly we were well over an hour. We'll get you next week).

Foil in the Oven: Turn the Page

Before we really get in to the meat of this post, I feel it necessary to proclaim my unconditional platonic love for Manny Ramirez one last time. I don't care how bad things might have gotten since the All-Star break, my feelings about Manny won't change. I have liked him for too long to change the way I feel. He has entertained me too much. I have defended him too many times (in fact, the first ever roomofzen post was one I wrote defending Manny after he came under harsh criticism during the 2007 ALCS. It may well have been this criticism that finally pushed us to start this site) to suddenly cave and join those very people to whom I had been defending him. I still love Manny, and I can't change that. He has meant too much to me. And, more importantly, he has meant too much to the Red Sox.

Obviously, I'm far from objective in this case. There is a short list of athletes about whom I simply can't be objective. It includes Manny, Pedro, Paul Pierce, Randy Moss, Eli Manning, Rodney Hampton, Taliek Brown, Kevin Freeman, and Carlos Quintana. I believe that the front office is at least partly to blame for Manny's departure. I also think that when he told the team he couldn't play in Seattle because his knee was bothering him, they should have diffused the situation by simply saying after the game "Manny said his knee was bothering him. That's fine. We don't want him playing if he's hurt." And then they should have done the same against the Yankees. I'm not saying Manny's totally innocent here. I just think the Red Sox could have handled the whole ordeal more tactfully.

What's done is done, and I need to move on. I'm happy to have Jason Bay here, and I'm also glad that I happened to be in attendance at Manny's final game in a Red Sox uniform (in which he went into the green monster for one last piss. He must have known a trade was coming). I wish Manny the best of luck in LA. Much like Pedro, I'll always want to see him do well.



Some final thoughts on this matter:

- I can't help but laugh whenever I picture Manny in LA. It's the perfect place for him. If Manny comes out and says "If it doesn't happen, so what? There's always next year. It's not the end of the world." in LA, the fans will probably just nod in agreement and say "yeah, he's right. If they lose tonight, we'll just go to the beach tomorrow. And, as he pointed out, there is always next year. Pass me some more guacamole" (I'm convinced the abundance of avocados is the main reason why everyone is so happy in California).

- Along those same lines, I don't think any athlete has ever been in a situation that would lend itself better to a major reality show. I would watch a reality show of Manny in LA instead of any other show on television. I'd upgrade to the highest level of cable. I'd even get a dish if I had to, even if the show was in Spanish (as long as there were subtitles). Somebody forked over the money to make Bonds on Bonds. I have to believe somebody out there wants to make this.

- I wasn't surprised to hear Manny thank the Boston fans. I remember being at the 2007 World Series parade and seeing him yelling that Boston fans were the best fans in the world and inviting everyone to his house for a party (I don't know if anybody ever took him up on that). I knew that what happened was between he and the front office and did not reflect the way he felt about the city itself.




- It will be interesting to see what happens with Manny's dreads. Joe Torre told him to cut them , but as of now (I just watched a highlight of him hitting a homerun in the second inning) he has not. The ball is in Torre's court now. Will he force the issue? He should know that Manny does not take well to being asked to conform. He should also know the the fans in LA will not support his neo-fascist bullshit like they did in New York. They shouldn't. I hate hearing about this stuff in professional sports. It reminds me of when Ben Wallace clashed with the Bulls, who had a no-headband rule (it should be noted that after the Bulls signed Wallace, they put up a big billboard outside the United Center of him wearing a headband. So it's not hard to see why he was confused about the rule). Manny, if you're reading this, please don't cut the dreads. You're an American citizen and you're a millionaire. You can wear your hair however you want.

- Finally, I just want to say that I don't think there are many jerseys out there more badass then the white Dodgers #99 Ramirez jersey. I've spent a lot of time this week convincing myself not to give in to the temptation.




Now, before we move on, you may want to crank this:


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All cultures are different. I know, for example, that in Germany it isn't strange for somebody you know to come up to you and just say "you really look like shit today". They are just very blunt and honest with each other. I'm not sure what the culture in China is like, but I have to believe that it's similar. A difference in customs is the only way I can possibly figure out the way Yao Ming publicly handled his team's acquisition of Ron Artest. Judging by American standards, he could not have handled it worse.

Let's look at that quote again. When asked about the addition of Artest, Yao said.............

"Hopefully, he's not fighting anymore and going after a guy in the stands."

I really can't think of anything worse that he could have possibly said. Calling his mom a slut, calling his mom a whore, making some type of racial slur. None of these would have been as bad. Think about it. Is there a darker moment in NBA history than the brawl at the Palace? Nothing even comes close. I'm sure there are ex-NBA fans who stopped watching professional basketball that night. This was a full-blown disaster. I'm sure Ron Artest has tried extremely hard to make people forget about what happened in Detroit. And now, his newest teammate has brought it right back into the news.

When I first heard that Yao quote, I assumed that this potentially great move by the Rockets might be doomed before the team ever got a chance to practice together. However, Artest has handled the situation very well. There is no response he could have given that would have been as inappropriate as Yao's. But, I would have liked to see some type of dig. Maybe "yeah, and hopefully Yao won't dominate for the first half of the season and then break his leg or injure his foot AGAIN causing all of the media to scrutinize Tracy McGrady and wonder why he can't get out of the first round on his own." But, even that isn't the same.

As I said, I think Yao's comments were the result of cultural differences and the language barrier, which is evidenced by this quote after he apologized to Artest:

"If something I said would make Ron feel uncomfortable, I apologize," Yao said. "I'm really sorry about that".................Uncomfortable? Why? You just brought up the most sensitive issue surrounding the league's most vulnerable player, who happens to be your teammate. In fact, you should say it again straight to him when he first arrives to Houston. He'll love it.


As for the move itself, I think it's great for the Rockets. In terms of impact, I think that this was the biggest transaction of the off-season. I've always liked Artest. I actually really wanted the Celtics to pursue him when he was coming back from his long suspension. If they stay healthy, this could be the best defensive team in the league next year. In Artest they've acquired a guy who is not only a top tier defender, but also a 20 point per night scorer (averaged 20.5 last season). Considering what a strong defensive team Houston was already, the sky is the limit for this team.

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LeBron James made the announcement that he would be willing to play in Europe for a salary of 50 million dollars per year. People have been discussing this all over tv (of course ESPN is trying to make it into a huge issue). But, I have to wonder if it is really news. I guarantee you 75% of the guys in the NBA would say the same thing. Who wouldn't go to Europe short term for that type of money?

I'm sure that if an offer of that magnitude comes to LeBron once his contract with Cleveland is up, he will have somebody crunching numbers to determine whether he will make more playing a max contract in America with endorsements or playing for that huge contract in Europe (which would probably bring a whole new lot of endorsements).

There is no salary cap in Europe, which means that these European teams have a bargaining advantage with NBA superstars. All it will take is one top tier NBA player (someone better than Josh Childress) to really make commisioner Stern worried about losing his most marketable names overseas. There are two ways that he could deal with this:

Option A (which I hate): Would be to lift the salary cap to ensure that American teams can offer contracts that are competitive with the Europeans. This would set the league back in my opinion.

Option B (which I love): Stern could expidite his plan to expand the NBA overseas. I'm sure that many of these teams would be thrilled to join the NBA. They would no longer have to overpay to get NBA talent in their arenas, they would have it there every night. Stern has already talked about doing this. If he feels the threat of LeBron leaving the United States in 2010 is real, he may want to stop talking about this plan and start taking real steps towards executing it.

One thing that seems very apparent in all of this is that LeBron does not have any interest in remaining with the Cavs after his current contract is up. I'm glad about this. Mike Brown's offense is horrible for him. It's almost like Brown is attempting to set up obstacles to LeBron's scoring to see just how high a degree of difficulty he can pull off. He never gets the ball in good spots. The system relies totally on his athleticism.

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As I'm typing, it just came across that Brett Favre has been traded to the New York Jets. I'm sure people are sick of hearing about this story, but let's just all take a minute to acknowledge what a unique saga it was. This story was unlike anything that I have ever seen. Never in my life would I have imagined that the Green Bay Packers would be doing everything in their power to keep Brett Favre away.

Suddenly, I have to wonder whether or not this Jets team can challenge New England. At the very least, I expect them to be in the mix for the playoff spots up until the very end of the season. Remember, the Jets added a lot of talent on the offensive line and on the defensive side of the ball. They already had a strong backfield and good wideouts. The only problem was that they didn't have a quarterback.

How long will Brett Favre play? If he improves the Jets tremendously, don't you have to believe he'll come back for one more season?
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A lot of Celtics fans have expressed concern over the news that Paul Pierce was handcuffed in Las Vegas this week. Obviously I wasn't thrilled about the story, but there are a few things that we need to remember here. First, the reason for Pierce being pulled over has been clarified. He changed lanes illegally. While it is a violation of traffic laws, it's certainly nothing to be concerned about. Second, if you're like me then you had already heard the news on the radio, so you just skimmed the article and noticed the name Cassell. You suddenly said to yourself "oh my god! How long have Paul Pierce and Sam Cassell been in Las Vegas?!" I thought of the pictures of the two of them, among others, celebrating in Vegas over a month ago, and assumed the worst.....

However, upon closer reading, it appears that Cassell is actually just the name of the police officer. Sam Cassell was not involved. Third, Pierce passed a field sobriety test and a breathalyzer. Finally, in a conversation thread over at Green Bandwagon, Weeks informed me that Pierce has trained in Vegas in the offseason for the past few seasons. He has always shown up to camp in great shape. Until he does otherwise, I don't think we need to worry.

So to recap-

this whole thing was because of an illegal lane change

Pierce was not over the legal alcohol limit so he was not violating any laws or putting people in danger

Cassell was the name of the officer and not of the point guard who tried to sabotage this team over and over again.

Pierce was not out with teammates partying, he spends summers training in Vegas.

Now, if he comes in out of shape, then we can all start worrying. The truth averaged 36 minutes per game last season, and the Celtics will most likely need more than that out of him this year if they want to repeat.

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I don't know who Tangent5000 is, but this live Bob Seger footage might be the most impressive Youtube video I have ever found. Amazing quality for being from 1980.

KG and Paul Pierce talk with Rachel Nichols

This interview is great, and longer than the one that aired on Sportscenter this weekend.