Well, just like last season, we missed the kickoff spectacular. However, there was no way I could let this week pass without getting up the rest of my week 1 picks. Generally, these will be up by Thursday night.
Miami +4 over Atlanta: I was originally inclined to go with Atlanta. I feel great about the Matt Ryan era, and Tony Gonzalez brings more (tangibles and intangibles) than just about anybody they could have brought in. On top of that, the Falcons are at home. But, I hate their defense, and I can't get that out of my head. Miami is the more balanced team, so I'm taking them. However, they say you should always stick with your first instinct, so we'll see how it works out.
Baltimore -12.5 over Kansas City: Steep line here, but how can you not take it. Even if things were going smoothly in Chiefs camp, I'd like the Ravens. The fact that things have been disastrous makes it a no-brainer.
Carolina +2.5 over Philadelphia: This line infuriates me. Carolina is the lock of the week.
Bengals -4 over Broncos: This Bengals team is very intriguing. Cedric Benson could be primed for a huge year. Laverneus Coles is a nice piece to put with Ocho Cinco and a supposedly refocused Chris Henry. Tank Johnson and Roy Williams have come over from Dallas. If they weren't in the AFC North, I'd give them a fighting chance to be a playoff team. The Broncos, on the other hand, have been spiraling out of control ever since Mike Shanahan was fired at the end of 2008.
Cleveland +4 over Minnesota: Now that TO outed the Browns QB situation, is it really necessary to leave the QB section of their depth chart completely blank? The Browns are well built on both sides of the line, and I like them at home here. The Vikings are pretenders.
Jets +4.5 over Texans: The Texans seem to be this season's "it" team. I was shocked to log on to espn.com earlier this week to see them listed with the Steelers, Patriots, and Giants as favorites. That's a tough division that they play in, and in my opinion they are nowhere near as good as Tennessee. The Jets are better than you think.
Indy -7 over Jacksonville: Each week this season, I will pick one game that I would prefer to not discuss. This is it for week 1.
Detroit +13 over New Orleans: Maybe I'm crazy, but 13 just feels like a lot. Great teaser potential here.
Dallas -6 over Tampa Bay: This will be a tough year in Tampa, but I'd say the reconstruction is off to a good start.
Arizona -6.5 over San Francisco: Kill me please. NFC west matchups are the only thing keeping me thinking that maybe I really don't need to bother getting Sunday Ticket.
Giants -6.5 over Washington: The Giants are, in this one incredibly biased fan's eyes, the unquestioned favorite in the NFC. Their defensive line is going to set a new standard for dominance this season.
The Redskins, on the other hand, are as uninspiring a group as I can imagine. They've made it clear that they have no confidence in their quarterback. Clinton Portis will be worn down by week 8. The offensive line is old, and struggled mightily last season. Albert Haynesworth is the most dominant player at his position, but frankly not even he could help this group. Throwing 100 million dollars at one great defensive lineman and surrounding him with bums does not work. Haynesworth was able to make such an impact in Tennessee because he was surrounded by other good players (did you even notice that Tennessee didn't have him last night? No. That defense didn't miss a beat). The Redskins are starting Phillip Daniels at defensive end. He's 36 and coming off knee surgery. Guys like this make Haynesworth less effective.
Seattle -8 over St. Louis: Don't let the monochromatic turquoise uniforms fool you. Seattle has a lot of playmakers on both sides of the ball. Everyone is talking about the addition of TJ Houshmandzadeh, but I'm really more interested to see if Edgerrin James will be rejuvenated by the change of scenery.
Green Bay -3.5 over Chicago: The Packers, in my mind, are the clear favorite in this division.
New England -11 over Buffalo: The Patriots are not fucking around right now, and I'm excited to watch their offense operate. I'd be more excited if I wasn't constantly surrounded by their insufferable fans.
San Diego -9.5 over Oakland: Oakland doesn't deserve to play on Monday night. In fact, they don't deserve to ever be on television outside of the Bay Area. They are an absolute black eye on this league, and they should be treated as such. Oakland had the highest payroll in the league last season (over 152 million). This is a very puzzling fact when you consider the 5-11 record they compiled and the fact that a recent Forbes article lists them as the least valuable franchise in the entire NFL. So, really, it would seem impossible for things to get worse. But then, at the end of last week, they did.
Really stop and think about this most recent deal. Richard Seymour is a guy who many feel has been on the decline over the past few seasons. He's a guy who many believe, despite playing for an extremely competitive team, lost motivation after signing his last contract. Already, he doesn't sound like the type of guy you want to give up too much for. His momentum's going the wrong way. On top of that, he's up for free agency at the end of this season, and there is NO FUCKING WAY he would ever consider signing with the Raiders (why would anybody) as a free agent unless Oakland just blew away all the other bidders. So, on top of being on the decline, he's a guy that will only help you for one season.
There is no way in the world I can ever imagine giving up a first round pick for this guy. That, in itself, is ridiculous. What's equally ridiculous is that the Raiders never talked to Seymour before making the deal. If you're going to give up something as valuable as a first round pick, you'd better make sure the guy you're getting is motivated and start negotiating long-term before the ink dries. There are rumors that the Raiders requested contact with Seymour and the Patriots refused. If that is true, then it should have been a dealbreaker for Oakland. Now they've given up a first round pick, most likely a top ten pick, for nothing.
I understand that Davis (and I blame only him, because he's the only name you can click on when you go to the Raiders administrative page) has the right to do whatever he wants with his team. I also understand that he's not a bad guy and that he's been extremely influential in this league. However, it is unacceptable. The NFL needs to start pushing for a change of hands, and that starts with refusing to put this team in a prime time slot. At some point, Raider fans are going to lose interest in professional football.
Son Volt, Windfall:
and Uncle Tupelo, Gun, from 1992:
1 comment:
We're not even in to the fourth quarter yet of these 1:00 games, and it's very clear that I really let my disdain for the Eagles cloud my judgement for the lock of the week.
However, a word on this. This game began just the way I expected. Carolina going up 7 with a D. Williams TD. Then, Jake Del Homme turned it over three straight times, spotting Philly three scores and tons of momentum.
I know Del Homme chokes in big games, but I figured early seaon, non-division matchups are generally games in which he shines. Is there even such a thing as a week 1 choke? He's your typical early season hero.
So yes, it was a biased pick for lock of the week, but I stand by my reasoning that Del Homme is an early season clutch player who generally wouldn't have blown it until later in the season.
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