Foil in the Oven: Week 4 Picks

I was 11-5 last week (but, in my defense, I couldn't have seen that Miami win coming and I conceded one game by predicting a tie).


Tennessee over Minnesota: It’s hard to have the type of success that people expected the Vikings to have without a balanced offensive attack. Remember, this isn’t just a team that runs a lot. This is a team that CANNOT THROW THE BALL. All you have to do to beat the Vikings is keep their ground game at bay. Tennessee can do that.


Denver over Kansas City: Where do you even start with this game? So far this season, the Chiefs have scored a combined total of 32 points. The Broncos have scored more points than that in each of their three games. The Broncos have looked good against stiff competition, knocking off San Diego and New Orleans in the past two weeks (and completely dismantling the Raiders in week 1). Meanwhile, the Chiefs made the Raiders and Falcons look like playoff contenders. Jay Cutler may still be a long way away from becoming the next John Elway, but he’s certainly becoming a household name in 2008. The Broncos currently rank second in the NFL in total offense, which is 26 spots ahead of the Chiefs. The last line I saw had Denver giving 9.5 in this one. Lay it down! They will cover. This is not a trap game. It’s a division game, and the Broncos will not take any matchup lightly as long as they can feel San Diego breathing down their necks.


San Francisco over New Orleans: I love the Niners. I’ve picked them every week, and they’ve made me look good most of the time. I’m taking them again here. The Saints are banged up badly. Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey, Randall Gay, Scott Fujita…this is not good. Jamar Nesbit’s suspension could not have come at a worse time. The Niners seem to have everything clicking right now. I think that they are for real (remember....I’m talking NFC West so “for real” means “surprisingly, not below average”). People will pay more attention after this week.


Cardinals over Jets: This is a tough pick for me to make. The Cards are traveling across the country and playing at 1 o’clock EST. That, on its own, could do them in. But, I can’t ignore the fact that I like the Cards on paper. The Jets have been turning the ball over a lot, and Arizona has the firepower to make them pay.


Green Bay over Tampa Bay: Green Bay’s passing attack gives them the edge here.

Carolina over Atlanta: Don’t be tricked into respecting the Falcons. You can respect the fact that they are not a complete fucking mess like last year. But, they are a year or two away from where they need to be to win this game.


Jacksonville over Houston: I expected much more from the Texans than what they have shown. Matt Schaub is looking much less like the answer to their troubles, and they just seem to lack whatever it was they had last season that made them so intriguing.


Cleveland over Cincinnati: How does Marvin Lewis still have a job? Really, can we think about this? This has been the most consistently disappointing team on AND off the field for too long for him to keep his job. I am 100% sure that this team is never going to accomplish anything with the core that they have now. Sure, there is a lot of talent. And, I think that all of these guys are capable of reaching great heights on their own in different environments. But, as currently constructed, this team is going nowhere.


San Diego over Oakland: I won’t waste my breath explaining this pick: the Bolts always beat up on the silver and black. Instead, I’d like to talk a little bit about the Lane Kiffin situation.....

I think that, given the circumstances, Kiffin has done a great job. Last year was really just a throwaway year. But, I love what I see in this team right now. Granted, they will most likely be 3-1 after this week. But, you have to like that they went on the road to Buffalo and almost pulled that game out. They have a legitimate core of young and talented skill players. The future is bright if these goods are handled properly (highly unlikely). But, this team is so young on offense. Al Davis has to understand this, and he has to understand that these guys need time to develop. That’s more important than any single game this season. On top of that, Al Davis seems particularly upset about the team’s defense. But, he’s ready to make the defensive coordinator the new head coach. That makes no sense. And, while I will grant that the Broncos torched Oakland’s defense (along with every other defense that they have faced), this unit held Kansas City to 6 points and didn’t look bad on the road against the Bills.


Buffalo over St. Louis: How many times can we possibly see Trent Green being carted off the field with a season-ending injury? Why is he still playing? And why for the Rams?




Dallas over Washington: People all over the country have been talking about how strong the NFC East is. I love it. I cannot get enough of reading about how sick the division is. The high level of competitiveness makes everything so much more exciting. Adding to that excitement is the fact that all four of these teams have long and storied rivalries with each other. There is perhaps no more storied rivalry in the division than the one between the Cowboys and Redskins. Dallas will win. I’m sure of that. And, I’m willing to admit that as good as the whole NFC East is, the Cowboys are a step above the rest this season. Take a look at their wins: on the road at Cleveland, home against Philly, and the Packers in Lambeau Field. The game against Philly was close, but there has not been a single second of action this regular season when the Cowboys have not appeared to be in total control. I expect the Cowboys to win, but I’m hoping that the Redskins can elevate their level of play and give us another classic NFC East heavyweight battle.


Philadelphia over Chicago: I can’t get behind this Bears team. As good as that defense is, they couldn’t knock off the Bucs last week, and now it seems as if people around the nation may have put a little too much stock in the week 1 victory over Indianapolis. Philadelphia will put pressure on Kyle Orton. He will throw interceptions. The Eagles will capitalize.


Baltimore over Pittsburgh: This should be an exciting game to watch, but I don’t expect a lot of scoring. Give the under some thought here. Pittsburgh has a nice arsenal of skill players, but they can’t protect Ben Roethlisberger. The Ravens defense will get to him early and often, and this will create the field position their offense needs to pull it out.


College Pick of the Week:

Mississippi State +24 to LSU. Mississippi State only lost 3-2 to Auburn two weeks ago. Then LSU had to come back to beat Auburn. This line just seems to big for me. My advice: throw them into a teaser with South Florida (-9.5 to NC State) and Wisconsin (-6.5 to Michigan).