Day 2

Don't say I didn't warn you about Houston.


On deck for today:





Jazz at Lakers, 3:00

True Blue Jazz: Yeah, so most people seem to have no hope in the Jazz. Be you a Lakers fan hoping for a sweep, a "famous" person... aka, a mainstream media guy... predicting the Lakers in 5 or 6 or a Jazz fan hoping the Jazz don't get totally embarrassed, you'd have to say/admit things don't look good for the Jazz. They've been struggling for the last bit, both at home and on the road (though that's a season-long issue). Injuries come and go, tensions may be rising, the coach may be giving up (or just trying to goad the team), the players may be packing for the off-season (and a new home?), etc. That, though, is what it is. And it'll all be dealt with at some point. Right now though, the main thing ahead is the first round playoff series with the Lakers.




Forum Blue and Gold: The Lakers have mismatches all over the place to exploit in this series. If they are smart, they should score plenty.

That starts inside in the paint. Mehmet Okur cannot keep Andrew Bynum off the low block or alter his shot in close, and Pau Gasol has a huge size advantage inside. We saw this some in the last regular season meeting between these two. When isolated, Boozer (especially a hobbled Boozer) was virtually helpless on Gasol. There are members of the Jazz — AK-47 — that love to come from the weak-side and block shots — Gasol and Bynum need to be aware and be ready to give up the ball.

The other big problem for the Jazz is at the two — Ronnie Brewer cannot slow Kobe Bryant. In the first two games this season against the Jazz, he averaged 38 points a game. Again, the Jazz can do things to bring help, but that leaves other players open if the Lakers share the ball.


Roomofzen Note: The Lakers are your 2009 NBA champions. Get the broom out.








76ers at Magic, 5:00


Liberty Ballers: We all know the Magic are a thousand times better on paper. We all know they have Dwight Howard. And we all know what the Sixers need to do to win. (3-point differential, defensive rebounding and free throws.) So, instead of polluting your minds with more useless numbers and strategies, I'm simply going to tell you in a couple sentences how excited I am, and leave you with a few YouTube clips to get you pumped!

How excited am I? As excited as I've ever been to watch a basketball game. Need I say more? On the flip side, I'm as nervous as a 6-year old school boy about to ask his secret crush if she wants to share a bag of cheddar fries. I think the game will go one of two ways -- good or bad -- there's no in between.

Don't ask me why I have faith in this 41-win Sixers team who has disappointed me time after time this season, because I won't have an answer. There's just something a special about this group of guys, and the sky's the limit.



Third Quarter Collapse: The book on the Orlando Magic this season is that they're a one-dimensional, three-point shooting team that struggles to win when their threes aren't falling: In a post called "Die By It," Depressed Fan points out that Orlando shoots 40.5% from three-point range in its wins and 31.5% in its losses. While I don't believe their fortunes are inextricably tied to the three-point shot, it is indeed an important part of their offense, to say the least.

And it will be even more important in their first-round playoff series against the Philadelphia 76ers. Orlando's biggest advantage over Philadelphia is its ability to bomb away from beyond the arc. In the regular season, Orlando averaged 10 made treys per game, while Philly averaged just 4. If those figures hold up in the postseason, the Sixers will have to make up for an 18-point deficit from the perimeter alone. That's a tall order, especially against Orlando's elite defense.



Roomofzen Note: Goddamit! The Celtics were supposed to get Philly. How did this all go so wrong?









Heat at Hawks


Peninsula is Mightier: "The Heat's interior defenders will need to be wary of the Hawks tendency of over-driving. They get to the foul line a fair amount (25.4 free throws/gm during the regular season), but shot only 73% as a team, good for 28th (3rd worse) in the NBA.

Staying on the subject, should the Hawks get into foul trouble, expect coach Mike Woodson to go to his bench quickly. Apparently, he has a deep fear of his players fouling out and will go to great lengths to avoid that at all costs.

The Hawks big guys (Al Horford and Josh Smith) can get into foul trouble, and the primary backup for them is Zaza Pachulia, who isn't as good a defender as his aforementioned teammates. Attacking the rim and getting to the foul line should be a key point on the Heat's dry-erase board at practice.

Dwyane Wade has never lost a 1st round series when healthy, and he is very healthy. I'm just sayin..."


Peachtree Hoops: Outside of Bibby and Marvin, the Hawks have a tendency to lock in on shooting. Whether it is methodical penetration by Joe or under control back down by Al or "I might as well be blind folded" drive by Josh or Zaza, the Hawks tend to get tunnel vision. Sometimes this is ok. It works for the Hawks. They can draw fouls. They can out athlete a lot of guys at the end. Of course, I wish there was more ball movement, more cutting to the basket, but that is not just going to start happening at this point in the season.

Which means the Dwayne Wade help block could come to the front and center of this series. Rarely is someone that athletic, that quick, also that good at blocking shots. He can slip down off his man in half a step. Hawks players cannot feel satisfied with simply beating their man. Dwayne Wade will be lurking.


Roomofzen Note: I'll be rooting for Miami. I picked them to win and the more Dwayne Wade I can see, the better. Beasley, don't make me look bad!






Hornets at Nuggets, 10:30


Hornets 24/7: "First, expect some cross matching in the backcourts as both teams prefer to keep their best defender on the opposing team's point guard. Dahntay Jones will open defensively on Chris Paul, while Billups slips over to handle Rasual Butler. Vice versa, Rasual Butler will open defensively on Billups, with Paul taking Dahntay.................................................One interesting thing to note is that Chauncey Billups is perfectly in Rasual Butler's wheelhouse defensively, being rather slow and easy to defend on the drive because of Butler's length. In four games this season against the Hornets, Butler has held Billups to 35% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from deep while Billups has only earned .5 free throws more per game due to the defensive pressure. Billups has also only managed 4.8 assists per game. I expect more of the same as Butler sticks to him like glue."


Pickaxe and Roll: Chris Paul is their team. Denver took to trapping him off screens and it has worked beautifully so far. Paul averages just 3 turnovers a game, but against the Nuggets he's averaged 5.3 turnovers a game and that's his highest rate of slip ups against any team. Paul has averaged 20.8 points and 11 assists against the Nuggets this season. He shoots 81% from the foul line and likes to get there any way he can. Paul will work the refs as much as he can and has a knack for being able to initiate contact and draw calls. If Denver can corral Paul in this series the Nuggets can win it in 5 games. If Paul has his way the Hornets will be almost impossible to beat.


Roomofzen Note: Who cares who wins, I just want it to go as long as possible.


I'll computerless until Tuesday, but will be in the Garden tomorrow night. Enjoy the games everyone.