Foil in The Oven Returns: Playoff Predictions

"I don't need your fucking sympathy, man. I need my fucking johnson"

--The Dude

I woke up this morning being 26 years old for the first time. That, in itself, is a lot to deal with. By the time we hit ten o'clock, I was trying to somehow make sense of the announcement that not only was Kevin Garnett not playing in round 1 of the playoffs, but he was most likely out for the entire postseason. I had resigned myself to the fact that he just needed rest. I didn't see this coming. Then, around 3:00, the news comes that John Madden is retiring from broadcoasting. I, personally, would have appreciated a little notice before his last game. By 5 o'clock tonight, Danny Ainge had suffered a heart attack. The guy is in great shape. And, he's only 50. I'm now more than halfway there. Needless to say, this was a very complicated day. A lot of ins, a lot of outs, a lot of what have yous. Fortunately, we've been adhering to a pretty strict drug regiment here to keep our minds, you know, limber.


I can't speak fully to the KG injury right now. All I can really say is that I have never been anywhere near this deflated by an sports injury. If there are any Patriots fans out there (so pretty much 3/4 of our readers), please leave some comments about how this stacks up against the Brady injury.

The one thing I was finally able to arrive at that gave me the strength to push on with my day and pump out these predictions was this:

at least this didn't happen last year.

Really, can you imagine how devastating this would have been last year? It's not much, but for now it's all I've got.

So, let's not wait any longer. Here are the picks (the West picks are without comment because I certainly don't watch enough of the West to say anything meaningful).




ROUND 1

EAST

Cleveland vs. Detroit:

The Pistons gave up on this season the minute they sent Chauncey Billups to Denver. They were, of course, open to the possibility of catching lightning in a bottle with AI, but more than anything this move was about Joe Dumars conceding that his group was no longer good enough to make it out of the East. As things currently stand, with a record below .500 and AI literally paying no dividends on the court (I hope this ungraceful exit is not the last we see of him), the question now becomes not who will win this series, but what type of series it will be.

The Pistons have played the Cavs tough this season. Rasheed Wallace has gone on the record as saying that he expects his team to re-gain their swagger once the post-season begins. I do believe in Detroit’s veteran leadership. I believe in the power of their home crowd and in their ability on defense to make LeBron James have to beat them all on his own. However, I also believe I’ve seen him do that before. Since then, he’s gotten better and Detroit has gotten worse.

The pick: Cleveland in 6.





Boston vs. Chicago:

This Bulls team is not the matchup I wanted for round 1. They really improved themselves at the trade deadline, and they've had the look over the past month of a team that could shake up the post-season. All that being said, they have no shot here. If they were a legitimate threat, they would have beaten Toronto last night (the news about KG wasn't out yet, they had something real to play for) at home. The absence of Luol Deng means big production for Paul Pierce. Kendrick Perkins will swallow Joakim Noah. Derrick Rose had a great season, but Rajon Rondo has blossomed into one of the league's premiere point guards. The Celtics have the advantage in every matchup.

The pick: Boston in 6






Orlando vs. Philadelphia:

There is no way Philly takes this series. They have no answer for Dwight Howard and don't have anybody that can shoot, which should translate to a lot of easy buckets in transition off of missed shots for the Magic. The Sixers are also horrendous in the half court, and Orlando’s ball movement should lead to a lot of good looks both on the interior and from long range.

I wanted to actually analyze the matchup here, but all I really needed to do was point out that the Celtics beat Philly on Tuesday night without KG or Ray Allen, and that it took overtime for the Sixers to knock off Cleveland’s athletic training staff last night.

The Pick: Orlando in 5







Hawks vs. Heat:

These should be great games to watch, regardless of the score is when you flip to them. It’s hard not to get excited about a team as athletic as the Hawks facing off against Dwayne Wade. I really want to take Miami here. I think that D-Wade has been just as spectacular as LeBron this season. I’m also excited to see how Michael Beasley performs in his first playoff series. If he is able to elevate his level of play, he could give his team the edge. Miami has really impressed me over the second half of the season. However, while most of the national media has been ignoring the Hawks, they have been playing incredibly consistent basketball. It’s hard not to give Atlanta the edge when you weigh the matchups. The Wade/Johnson matchup will be great to see, and I will be interested to see how much Miami gets out of Jermaine O'Neal. This is hands down the toughest one to pick, so I’m going with my gut:

Even though it doesn’t make sense: Heat in 6.







ROUND 1
WEST (ABRIDGED):

Lakers over Jazz in 4:

Nuggets over Hornets in 7: Note: I don't want to miss one minute of this series.

Houston over Portland in 6:- I know people are saying "nobody wants to catch Portland right now", but I think Ron Artest provides Houston with the mentality they need to advance to round 2.

San Antonio over Dallas in 6:







ROUND 2: EAST

Cleveland over Miami:

Regardless of whether they see Atlanta or Miami, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cleveland coast in round 2. Detroit is a tougher matchup.

The pick: Cavs in 5.





Boston over Orlando:

I'm not sold on Orlando, and there is nothing they can do against Philadelphia that will convince me otherwise. I can't help but wonder if the people who wrote them in as championship contenders last month have been paying any attention at all to what has been happening this month. They were certainly impressive in March (12-2), but they have come crashing back down to Earth in April (4-5 this month, including losses to Toronto, New York, New jersey, and an 18 point loss to the Bucks).

On March 25th, the Magic defeated Boston by 2, and moved the Celtics down to third place in the East. This was the last game in which Kevin Garnett was able to play (and his role was very limited). Leon Powe, Tony Allen, and Brian Scalabrine were all out as well. How could Orlando not have held on to that 2 seed? It's inexplicable. They are not contenders.

Kendrick Perkins will be the key to Boston's success in this series, as he is the NBA's premier Dwight Howard stopper. Throw in the fact that there are serious questions about the health of Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, Boston is tough at home, and that there isn't anybody on the Magic capable of defending Paul Pierce, and this all adds up to a victory for the Cs.

The pick: Celtics in 7







WEST ROUND 2 (Abridged)


Lakers over Rockets in 5:

Spurs over Nuggets in 6:








Eastern Conference Finals:

Cavaliers over Celtics: There are many out there who say that the Cavs win this series even if it involves a healthy KG. I'm not one of those people. I think the Cavs are flawed, and I've felt all season long like the Celtics were the superior team. The two games the Cavs took from Boston this year were, in my opinion, two of the most uncharacteristically bad performances the Celtics turned in all season. Easter Sunday's performance was the worst (Pierce 4-17, totally flat performance, shooting 35% as a team). The statistics in these performances indicate that the Celtics would have lost to most NBA teams on these days. When they play at a level more aligned with their season averages, they have beaten Cleveland twice, including once with Kevin Garnett out.


So, just to clarify, if the Celtics were coming into this series with Kevin Garnett healthy, they would win. They simply have too much front line depth (KG, Perk, Big Baby, Leon, Mikki Moore) for Cleveland to handle.

But, we're dealing with reality here, and the reality is that I can't pick the Celtics to win this series. On paper, the Cavs seem harmless. Mo Williams? really? That's the other big gun? Delonte West? Don't try that shit with me. I'm well aware of what he can and can't do. When you look at the roster, and then you see how much LeBron is able to raise the level at which all of these guys play, you can't help but cast your MVP vote for anybody else. And, believe me, I'd like to.

The pick: Cleveland in 6





Western Conference Finals (abridged):

Lakers over Spurs in 5.








NBA Finals:

Lakers over Cavs in 5.

This is the Lakers' year, and nothing LeBron James does can change that. The Cavs will be totally outmatched in this series. There is no way they can compete with a front line of Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom. Number 24 is pretty good too. Even though he hasn't averaged so few points per game since 2004, I've never been more in awe of him.

The Calm Before the Storm

As I sit here on the eve of the NBA post-season, I can barely contain myself. I have felt this way before, but it has never been quite like this. Last year I spent this night weighing the matchups, looking rosters up and down, and making the final decisions about what teams I was going to support in each conference. When all was said and done, I decided that my number one team would be Golden State. I expected that they would beat Dallas (as did many, the Don Nelson thing was huge plus they had proven to be a tough matchup in the regular season). This would be ideal because they were very exciting to watch, they had a chance to pull a huge upset, and I could relish in that whole "nobody believed in us thing." I changed my desktop backround to a big warriors logo, and spent a lot of time on the Golden State message boards getting up to date. I still wore my Paul Pierce jersey during the games to avoid any real confusion. I was still a Celtics fan. But, during the 2007 NBA playoffs, I was a Warriors supporter.

This year will be different.

As soon as Utah knocked Golden State out, any pro-Warriors thoughts went out the window, and I settled for being able to watch Phoenix-San Antonio, and marveling at LeBron. When I see the Warriors play now, I have no special feelings about them. In essence, I rented myself to them for a couple of weeks. It didn't mean anything. Like a cheap whore, I gave myself up temporarily in exchange for the illusion of genuine playoff excitement. What choice did I have? Anyone who knows me knows that nothing would have made me happier than being able to watch some Celtics playoff basketball. It just wasn't in the cards. This wasn't the same, but it was the best option I had.

Looking back, I couldn't be more thankful for the opportunity that lies ahead. At this time last season, I never imagined the Celtics would be sitting in this position. A seven or eight seed? Sure, after all it is the Eastern Conference. But, the number one seed! 66 wins! The best team in the NBA! The transformation has been remarkable. As currently assembled, the Celtics are better and more championship-ready than I ever could have dreamed given the pieces that they had. What Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers have done has been remarkable.


Before I give my predictions, I would like to make a few comments regarding some statements that I have read today. I spent some time reading some Laker fan posts on ESPN.com, and soon became enraged. The comments alleged that the only reason the Celtics have been successful is that they were helped out by the "Good Old Boy Celtics Network." Obviously, whoever wrote this post believes that (A) The Celtics were only able to acquire Kevin Garnett because Kevin McHale wanted to help out Danny Ainge and (B) The acquisition of Garnett, and only the acquisition of Garnett, is what put the Celtics in their current position. So, in defending this Celtics administration, which has been outstanding, let me say the following:




First, the turnaround of the Celtics was not a one-year miracle. It was a five year process in which the organization did a great job of scouting, drafting, developing young players into valuable assets, and cutting money off the books. More often than not, this policy was unpopular. How many times have we heard Ainge blasted on the radio. How badly did we all want the Celtics to land Brandon Roy or Randy Foye in 2006? However, the Celtics came out of that first round with the ever-famous "Theo Ratliff's expiring contract" bargaining piece and were able to select Rajon Rondo later that round. How bad did we all want Allen Iverson last year? Would that have put us in this position? Judging by what happened in Denver, certainly not. Ainge had a plan in mind all along. Keep developing as many trading assets and acquiring as many big expiring contracts (Ratliff, Brian Grant, The Kandi Man) until the big opportunities come along. Despite the fact that many in Boston called for his head and made public pleas for him to start moving those pieces, he waited until the right time.

Second, Kevin Garnett WANTED to come to Boston. He wanted to come to Boston because we had Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. In order for us to get Kevin Garnett, we first had to make the move for Ray Allen. Think about it, no matter how expansive your "old boy network" may be, you can't acquire two well-established all-stars unless you're giving up something. Ainge did a brilliant job of dealing for Allen while still holding on to the right pieces (mainly Al Jefferson and Ratliff) needed to get Garnett. McHale wasn't just making Ainge happy. He was granting Garnett's wishes and helping his team out.

Third, the Timberwolves certainly got more from the Garnett trade than Memphis got from the Gasol move. The Lakers gave up nothing for Gasol. And, while we're at it, Gasol was a nice addition BUT he's not Kevin Garnett. Gasol is soft, and he doesn't bring one tenth of the intangibles that the Big Ticket does. We had the pieces to get KG while keeping our core intact. The Lakers didn't have shit to give. That's why we have KG and they have Pau Gasol.


Finally, I will say this, I have doubted Danny Ainge many times before. But, I can't argue with what he's done. I heard an interview with him recently on the Big Show, and I found what he had to say very re-assuring. In the interview, he made it clear that the Celtics were planning on trying to trade their 2007 draft pick regardless of where they fell in the lottery. "Imagine that" he said "If we had pick one or two, we really thought that we could have gotten Garnett without giving up Al Jefferson." He went on to explain why he had spent so much time developing players and why he had waited so long to make a move. His plan was ambitious. He wanted to blow it all up except for Paul Pierce, gather as many young pieces and expiring contracts as he could, and sit tight until he had a chance to make Paul Pierce a champion. If that opportunity never came, he could trade Pierce and continue re-building. The plan worked. So, if you are one of those who believes Ainge fell ass-backward into good fortune, I urge you to look back on the moves that he has made in his career with the Celtics. On their own, many of them are unimpressive. However, when you see how they all fit together, you can't help but feel re-assured about the future of this team.


Now that I have that off my chest, here are my playoff predictions.

First, Ballgame's picks (which he explains in his two posts below):
Boston over Atlanta in 4; Wizards over Cavs in 7; Boston over Wizards in 7; Orlando over Toronto; Detroit over Philly in 7; Detroit over Orlando; Celts over Detroit in 7 for the finals.

Lakers over Denver; Houston over Utah; Lakers over Houston in 7; Spurs over Phoenix; Hornets over Mavs; Spurs over Hornets; Lakers over Spurs for the finals.

Lakers win the title over the Celts, giving Kobe the Playoff MVP.


Babcock's picks will be out soon.


My picks:

Boston in 4
--seriously, did you expect anything else?
Detroit in 6
--Philly will make it tough
Toronto in 6
--this is my 2008 official "who gives a shit" series
Washington in 7
--looking forward to watching these two teams battle it out

then

Boston over Washington in 5
--payback for the regular season
Detroit over Toronto in 5
--we got a preview of this one last Sunday

Then Boston over Detroit in 5
--easier than people think

Out West

Lakers over Nuggets in 5
--The Lakers have that look right now
Hornets over Mavs in 5
--I hate what the Mavs have done this year
Phoenix over San Antonio in 7
--Shaq in the playoffs, Steve Nash out for blood
Utah over Houston in 6
--Utah is that team you don't want to forget about

Then Lakers over Utah in 6
--too much Kobe
Phoenix over New Orleans in 7
--I'd love to see the Hornets win, but I don't see how it could happen

Lakers over Suns in 5
--Again, easier than expected



FINALS

Celtics over Lakers in 6

--The other comment that pissed me off was a Laker fan predicting LA over Boston and saying "Do you actually think Boston can stretch this series out and make it close?" First of all, the Celtics are better than the Lakers, and anybody that watched the two teams play this year knows that. The Celtics are too deep, and the longer the series goes the more it favors them. To me, the Celtics winning in 6 would mean that the Lakers had played really well.

Playoff MVP: Paul Pierce