The Calm Before the Storm

As I sit here on the eve of the NBA post-season, I can barely contain myself. I have felt this way before, but it has never been quite like this. Last year I spent this night weighing the matchups, looking rosters up and down, and making the final decisions about what teams I was going to support in each conference. When all was said and done, I decided that my number one team would be Golden State. I expected that they would beat Dallas (as did many, the Don Nelson thing was huge plus they had proven to be a tough matchup in the regular season). This would be ideal because they were very exciting to watch, they had a chance to pull a huge upset, and I could relish in that whole "nobody believed in us thing." I changed my desktop backround to a big warriors logo, and spent a lot of time on the Golden State message boards getting up to date. I still wore my Paul Pierce jersey during the games to avoid any real confusion. I was still a Celtics fan. But, during the 2007 NBA playoffs, I was a Warriors supporter.

This year will be different.

As soon as Utah knocked Golden State out, any pro-Warriors thoughts went out the window, and I settled for being able to watch Phoenix-San Antonio, and marveling at LeBron. When I see the Warriors play now, I have no special feelings about them. In essence, I rented myself to them for a couple of weeks. It didn't mean anything. Like a cheap whore, I gave myself up temporarily in exchange for the illusion of genuine playoff excitement. What choice did I have? Anyone who knows me knows that nothing would have made me happier than being able to watch some Celtics playoff basketball. It just wasn't in the cards. This wasn't the same, but it was the best option I had.

Looking back, I couldn't be more thankful for the opportunity that lies ahead. At this time last season, I never imagined the Celtics would be sitting in this position. A seven or eight seed? Sure, after all it is the Eastern Conference. But, the number one seed! 66 wins! The best team in the NBA! The transformation has been remarkable. As currently assembled, the Celtics are better and more championship-ready than I ever could have dreamed given the pieces that they had. What Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers have done has been remarkable.


Before I give my predictions, I would like to make a few comments regarding some statements that I have read today. I spent some time reading some Laker fan posts on ESPN.com, and soon became enraged. The comments alleged that the only reason the Celtics have been successful is that they were helped out by the "Good Old Boy Celtics Network." Obviously, whoever wrote this post believes that (A) The Celtics were only able to acquire Kevin Garnett because Kevin McHale wanted to help out Danny Ainge and (B) The acquisition of Garnett, and only the acquisition of Garnett, is what put the Celtics in their current position. So, in defending this Celtics administration, which has been outstanding, let me say the following:




First, the turnaround of the Celtics was not a one-year miracle. It was a five year process in which the organization did a great job of scouting, drafting, developing young players into valuable assets, and cutting money off the books. More often than not, this policy was unpopular. How many times have we heard Ainge blasted on the radio. How badly did we all want the Celtics to land Brandon Roy or Randy Foye in 2006? However, the Celtics came out of that first round with the ever-famous "Theo Ratliff's expiring contract" bargaining piece and were able to select Rajon Rondo later that round. How bad did we all want Allen Iverson last year? Would that have put us in this position? Judging by what happened in Denver, certainly not. Ainge had a plan in mind all along. Keep developing as many trading assets and acquiring as many big expiring contracts (Ratliff, Brian Grant, The Kandi Man) until the big opportunities come along. Despite the fact that many in Boston called for his head and made public pleas for him to start moving those pieces, he waited until the right time.

Second, Kevin Garnett WANTED to come to Boston. He wanted to come to Boston because we had Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. In order for us to get Kevin Garnett, we first had to make the move for Ray Allen. Think about it, no matter how expansive your "old boy network" may be, you can't acquire two well-established all-stars unless you're giving up something. Ainge did a brilliant job of dealing for Allen while still holding on to the right pieces (mainly Al Jefferson and Ratliff) needed to get Garnett. McHale wasn't just making Ainge happy. He was granting Garnett's wishes and helping his team out.

Third, the Timberwolves certainly got more from the Garnett trade than Memphis got from the Gasol move. The Lakers gave up nothing for Gasol. And, while we're at it, Gasol was a nice addition BUT he's not Kevin Garnett. Gasol is soft, and he doesn't bring one tenth of the intangibles that the Big Ticket does. We had the pieces to get KG while keeping our core intact. The Lakers didn't have shit to give. That's why we have KG and they have Pau Gasol.


Finally, I will say this, I have doubted Danny Ainge many times before. But, I can't argue with what he's done. I heard an interview with him recently on the Big Show, and I found what he had to say very re-assuring. In the interview, he made it clear that the Celtics were planning on trying to trade their 2007 draft pick regardless of where they fell in the lottery. "Imagine that" he said "If we had pick one or two, we really thought that we could have gotten Garnett without giving up Al Jefferson." He went on to explain why he had spent so much time developing players and why he had waited so long to make a move. His plan was ambitious. He wanted to blow it all up except for Paul Pierce, gather as many young pieces and expiring contracts as he could, and sit tight until he had a chance to make Paul Pierce a champion. If that opportunity never came, he could trade Pierce and continue re-building. The plan worked. So, if you are one of those who believes Ainge fell ass-backward into good fortune, I urge you to look back on the moves that he has made in his career with the Celtics. On their own, many of them are unimpressive. However, when you see how they all fit together, you can't help but feel re-assured about the future of this team.


Now that I have that off my chest, here are my playoff predictions.

First, Ballgame's picks (which he explains in his two posts below):
Boston over Atlanta in 4; Wizards over Cavs in 7; Boston over Wizards in 7; Orlando over Toronto; Detroit over Philly in 7; Detroit over Orlando; Celts over Detroit in 7 for the finals.

Lakers over Denver; Houston over Utah; Lakers over Houston in 7; Spurs over Phoenix; Hornets over Mavs; Spurs over Hornets; Lakers over Spurs for the finals.

Lakers win the title over the Celts, giving Kobe the Playoff MVP.


Babcock's picks will be out soon.


My picks:

Boston in 4
--seriously, did you expect anything else?
Detroit in 6
--Philly will make it tough
Toronto in 6
--this is my 2008 official "who gives a shit" series
Washington in 7
--looking forward to watching these two teams battle it out

then

Boston over Washington in 5
--payback for the regular season
Detroit over Toronto in 5
--we got a preview of this one last Sunday

Then Boston over Detroit in 5
--easier than people think

Out West

Lakers over Nuggets in 5
--The Lakers have that look right now
Hornets over Mavs in 5
--I hate what the Mavs have done this year
Phoenix over San Antonio in 7
--Shaq in the playoffs, Steve Nash out for blood
Utah over Houston in 6
--Utah is that team you don't want to forget about

Then Lakers over Utah in 6
--too much Kobe
Phoenix over New Orleans in 7
--I'd love to see the Hornets win, but I don't see how it could happen

Lakers over Suns in 5
--Again, easier than expected



FINALS

Celtics over Lakers in 6

--The other comment that pissed me off was a Laker fan predicting LA over Boston and saying "Do you actually think Boston can stretch this series out and make it close?" First of all, the Celtics are better than the Lakers, and anybody that watched the two teams play this year knows that. The Celtics are too deep, and the longer the series goes the more it favors them. To me, the Celtics winning in 6 would mean that the Lakers had played really well.

Playoff MVP: Paul Pierce