Week 7: Looking to Bounce Back

KANSAS CITY +5 over San Diego: I don't really have the logic to explain myself here. My head is saying I should pick San Diego. But, I hate the Bolts, and they really are not good. They haven't impressed me once so far this year. This Chiefs team seems to be growing more confident each week, and they haven't won at home yet. They're due. The way the Chargers have looked, I think the best case scenario for them this week is a 3 point win.


Indianapolis -13.5 over ST. LOUIS: The three team tease is back and more reliable than ever. The Colts should be at the top of your teaser flow chart every week. You don't even need to look at the matchup. It's like the new Velveeta version of Easy Mac. You can't go wrong.





Chicago +1 over CINCINNATI: The Bengals looked very ordinary last week, and I really don't think they're as good as that 4-2 record. The injury to Antwan Odom makes this game a lock for the Bears, who have impressed me even in their losses. Also, doesn't it seem like it would be smart to always tease an underdog against the Bengals? They seem to always win on the last minute, ensuring a small margin of victory, or they lose. Either way, with the tease, you're probably in good shape.



Green Bay -8.5 over CLEVELAND: The Browns suck, and they seem to be getting worse. I'm really not sure what else you want from me.



Minnesota +5.5 over PITTSBURGH: The Steelers have won 9 in a row at home, and they'll have Troy Polamalu, a major game changer, back in action. But, I just don't like that pass-happy offense against this Vikings defensive front. This could be a long day for Big Ben. The Vikings big wins (San Fran, Green Bay, and Baltimore) have come at the Metrodome. This will be their first major road contest (they've been at Cleveland, Detroit, and St. Louis). This win in Pittsburgh will be a major statement.



New England -15 over Tampa Bay: Last year I lost when I wagered on the London game. I expected the Giants to steamroll the Dolphins, but the rainy field in London made it just a three point game. But, after last week, I certainly can't justify taking Tampa because of weather considerations. The Patriots are building momentum.




San Francisco +3 over HOUSTON: Frank Gore is back, Glen Coffee has some experience under his belt, Michael Crabtree is in the starting lineup, and I love the Niners from this point forward. Plus, they are coming off a bye, and they were embarrassed their last time out. I can only imagine that the image of Mike Singletary's grundle is permanently burned into Dre Bly's memory after that one.




OAKLAND +6 over NY Jets: 6 points? really? The Jets have lost three straight, and haven't looked good doing it. Their head coach seems completely shell-shocked after these losses, and they're bringing a rookie quarterback into the black hole to face a tough defense. On the other hand, the Raiders seemed to have bounced back extremely well from the ass whooping the Giants put on them a couple of weeks ago. They just beat a team that was playing in the NFC championship game last year, their coach was just cleared of assault charges, their new stud defensive lineman has guaranteed they will make the playoffs, and their recently deceased players are coming back to the field as pigeons. Yeah, I like Oakland here.







Buffalo +7 over CAROLINA: I don't care if Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing quarterback or not. There is no reason for Carolina to be giving 7 to anybody besides St. Louis.



New Orleans -6.5 over At Miami: Miami is a very popular pick this week. I guess I understand it from the standpoint that the wildcat might neutralize the Saints pressure and Miami will chew up minutes. But, I will direct your attention back to Monday night in week 2. Miami perfectly executed their game plan, holding the ball for over three full quarters. And yet, despite having less then 15 minutes of possession, Peyton Manning was able to score his points quickly enough to win the game. The Saints can do the same thing.



DALLAS -4 over Atlanta: I love Dallas coming off the bye here. Some of you out there might be wondering what it's going to take for me to believe in the Falcons. I don't have an answer. Every week I'm wrong about them, and I'm still not convinced.



NY GIANTS -7 over Arizona: I wouldn't want to be the Cardinals this week. The Giants were embarrassed last week. They are better than they showed, and I'm sure they are itching to get back out on the field. They were getting blown out in the first half, and they still had a chance to make it a one possession game had it not been for Roman Harper's forced fumble.

CC Brown had the Roy Williams syndrome last week. He was so eager to play the run that he got roasted in the passing game. Of course I'd rather have Kenny Phillips. But Brown started in this league for 4 years with Houston, and I expect him to bounce back and at least play competently from here on out.



Philadelphia -7 over WASHINGTON: NFC East divisional matchups are always closer than you'd think. Were it not for the Eagles losing to Oakland last week, I might like the Skins here. But, like the Giants, I'm sure the Eagles have had a bad taste in their mouth all week.



Your Teaser of the Week:




10 point teaser:

Indy -3.5 over St. Louis, Green Bay +1 over Cleveland, and New England -5 over Tampa Bay.

"You Don't Need Sterroids....Anymore."

This commercial was run back to back this morning on ESPN with the new Frank Thomas ZizzZaz commercials (see below). I don't exactly understand who they're reaching out to. People who already take sterroids probably aren't going to switch. But, by describing them as a subsititute for sterroids, they've also pretty much ensured that I won't be buying morphoplex for my hypothetical children.

Foil in The Oven Returns: Playoff Predictions

"I don't need your fucking sympathy, man. I need my fucking johnson"

--The Dude

I woke up this morning being 26 years old for the first time. That, in itself, is a lot to deal with. By the time we hit ten o'clock, I was trying to somehow make sense of the announcement that not only was Kevin Garnett not playing in round 1 of the playoffs, but he was most likely out for the entire postseason. I had resigned myself to the fact that he just needed rest. I didn't see this coming. Then, around 3:00, the news comes that John Madden is retiring from broadcoasting. I, personally, would have appreciated a little notice before his last game. By 5 o'clock tonight, Danny Ainge had suffered a heart attack. The guy is in great shape. And, he's only 50. I'm now more than halfway there. Needless to say, this was a very complicated day. A lot of ins, a lot of outs, a lot of what have yous. Fortunately, we've been adhering to a pretty strict drug regiment here to keep our minds, you know, limber.


I can't speak fully to the KG injury right now. All I can really say is that I have never been anywhere near this deflated by an sports injury. If there are any Patriots fans out there (so pretty much 3/4 of our readers), please leave some comments about how this stacks up against the Brady injury.

The one thing I was finally able to arrive at that gave me the strength to push on with my day and pump out these predictions was this:

at least this didn't happen last year.

Really, can you imagine how devastating this would have been last year? It's not much, but for now it's all I've got.

So, let's not wait any longer. Here are the picks (the West picks are without comment because I certainly don't watch enough of the West to say anything meaningful).




ROUND 1

EAST

Cleveland vs. Detroit:

The Pistons gave up on this season the minute they sent Chauncey Billups to Denver. They were, of course, open to the possibility of catching lightning in a bottle with AI, but more than anything this move was about Joe Dumars conceding that his group was no longer good enough to make it out of the East. As things currently stand, with a record below .500 and AI literally paying no dividends on the court (I hope this ungraceful exit is not the last we see of him), the question now becomes not who will win this series, but what type of series it will be.

The Pistons have played the Cavs tough this season. Rasheed Wallace has gone on the record as saying that he expects his team to re-gain their swagger once the post-season begins. I do believe in Detroit’s veteran leadership. I believe in the power of their home crowd and in their ability on defense to make LeBron James have to beat them all on his own. However, I also believe I’ve seen him do that before. Since then, he’s gotten better and Detroit has gotten worse.

The pick: Cleveland in 6.





Boston vs. Chicago:

This Bulls team is not the matchup I wanted for round 1. They really improved themselves at the trade deadline, and they've had the look over the past month of a team that could shake up the post-season. All that being said, they have no shot here. If they were a legitimate threat, they would have beaten Toronto last night (the news about KG wasn't out yet, they had something real to play for) at home. The absence of Luol Deng means big production for Paul Pierce. Kendrick Perkins will swallow Joakim Noah. Derrick Rose had a great season, but Rajon Rondo has blossomed into one of the league's premiere point guards. The Celtics have the advantage in every matchup.

The pick: Boston in 6






Orlando vs. Philadelphia:

There is no way Philly takes this series. They have no answer for Dwight Howard and don't have anybody that can shoot, which should translate to a lot of easy buckets in transition off of missed shots for the Magic. The Sixers are also horrendous in the half court, and Orlando’s ball movement should lead to a lot of good looks both on the interior and from long range.

I wanted to actually analyze the matchup here, but all I really needed to do was point out that the Celtics beat Philly on Tuesday night without KG or Ray Allen, and that it took overtime for the Sixers to knock off Cleveland’s athletic training staff last night.

The Pick: Orlando in 5







Hawks vs. Heat:

These should be great games to watch, regardless of the score is when you flip to them. It’s hard not to get excited about a team as athletic as the Hawks facing off against Dwayne Wade. I really want to take Miami here. I think that D-Wade has been just as spectacular as LeBron this season. I’m also excited to see how Michael Beasley performs in his first playoff series. If he is able to elevate his level of play, he could give his team the edge. Miami has really impressed me over the second half of the season. However, while most of the national media has been ignoring the Hawks, they have been playing incredibly consistent basketball. It’s hard not to give Atlanta the edge when you weigh the matchups. The Wade/Johnson matchup will be great to see, and I will be interested to see how much Miami gets out of Jermaine O'Neal. This is hands down the toughest one to pick, so I’m going with my gut:

Even though it doesn’t make sense: Heat in 6.







ROUND 1
WEST (ABRIDGED):

Lakers over Jazz in 4:

Nuggets over Hornets in 7: Note: I don't want to miss one minute of this series.

Houston over Portland in 6:- I know people are saying "nobody wants to catch Portland right now", but I think Ron Artest provides Houston with the mentality they need to advance to round 2.

San Antonio over Dallas in 6:







ROUND 2: EAST

Cleveland over Miami:

Regardless of whether they see Atlanta or Miami, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cleveland coast in round 2. Detroit is a tougher matchup.

The pick: Cavs in 5.





Boston over Orlando:

I'm not sold on Orlando, and there is nothing they can do against Philadelphia that will convince me otherwise. I can't help but wonder if the people who wrote them in as championship contenders last month have been paying any attention at all to what has been happening this month. They were certainly impressive in March (12-2), but they have come crashing back down to Earth in April (4-5 this month, including losses to Toronto, New York, New jersey, and an 18 point loss to the Bucks).

On March 25th, the Magic defeated Boston by 2, and moved the Celtics down to third place in the East. This was the last game in which Kevin Garnett was able to play (and his role was very limited). Leon Powe, Tony Allen, and Brian Scalabrine were all out as well. How could Orlando not have held on to that 2 seed? It's inexplicable. They are not contenders.

Kendrick Perkins will be the key to Boston's success in this series, as he is the NBA's premier Dwight Howard stopper. Throw in the fact that there are serious questions about the health of Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, Boston is tough at home, and that there isn't anybody on the Magic capable of defending Paul Pierce, and this all adds up to a victory for the Cs.

The pick: Celtics in 7







WEST ROUND 2 (Abridged)


Lakers over Rockets in 5:

Spurs over Nuggets in 6:








Eastern Conference Finals:

Cavaliers over Celtics: There are many out there who say that the Cavs win this series even if it involves a healthy KG. I'm not one of those people. I think the Cavs are flawed, and I've felt all season long like the Celtics were the superior team. The two games the Cavs took from Boston this year were, in my opinion, two of the most uncharacteristically bad performances the Celtics turned in all season. Easter Sunday's performance was the worst (Pierce 4-17, totally flat performance, shooting 35% as a team). The statistics in these performances indicate that the Celtics would have lost to most NBA teams on these days. When they play at a level more aligned with their season averages, they have beaten Cleveland twice, including once with Kevin Garnett out.


So, just to clarify, if the Celtics were coming into this series with Kevin Garnett healthy, they would win. They simply have too much front line depth (KG, Perk, Big Baby, Leon, Mikki Moore) for Cleveland to handle.

But, we're dealing with reality here, and the reality is that I can't pick the Celtics to win this series. On paper, the Cavs seem harmless. Mo Williams? really? That's the other big gun? Delonte West? Don't try that shit with me. I'm well aware of what he can and can't do. When you look at the roster, and then you see how much LeBron is able to raise the level at which all of these guys play, you can't help but cast your MVP vote for anybody else. And, believe me, I'd like to.

The pick: Cleveland in 6





Western Conference Finals (abridged):

Lakers over Spurs in 5.








NBA Finals:

Lakers over Cavs in 5.

This is the Lakers' year, and nothing LeBron James does can change that. The Cavs will be totally outmatched in this series. There is no way they can compete with a front line of Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom. Number 24 is pretty good too. Even though he hasn't averaged so few points per game since 2004, I've never been more in awe of him.

The Final Countdown

As exciting as the buildup to the Super Bowl can be, there is always the sinking feeling that starts to set in right about now. Sure, at first it won't be so bad. We'll all make sure we tune in to ESPN so that they can milk the story of the Super Bowl and its heroes for weeks after the game has finished. Those of us who consider ourselves intelligent and right-minded sports fans usually cringe at the kind of swill the ESPN spits at us, blowing stories out of proportion and keeping them on the stage until long after it is their time to go. But, this is the one instance in which I will gravitate to them like an idiot. Anything to keep the spirit of the season alive.

The transition out of football season can be brutal. Some desperately try to fill the void by making big plans for the Pro Bowl. This might help you get through next week, but the empty feeling you experience during the game is perhaps the most harsh way to finally be hit with the reality that there is nothing you can do to bring the season back. Suddenly, even though the days are getting longer, the winter has never seemed so dark and cold. I've been hurt by the Pro Bowl too many times, which is why I won't be watching this year.

I've heard a lot of people complaining about this Super Bowl being a "vanilla matchup." The radio stations in Boston have spent more time talking about Jason Varitek, Giselle Budchen, and girls high school basketball (100-0) than they have about the game. I want to take this opportunity to encourage everyone out there not to approach this day passively. This is one of the best days of the year, and its the last chance you'll have to immerse yourself in pure NFL bliss for the next 7 months. Embrace it. Celebrate it. You'll regret it if you don't.

If you've listened to our Super Bowl podcast, then you know that we expect a very exciting matchup. Here are some points that were left out of the podcast that I'd like to touch on quickly:


1) The importance of Willie Parker: Because we've all been so mystified by the fact that Arizona suddenly seems to have a running game, and because Willie Parker has been in and out of the lineup, nobody seems to be talking about how important Pittsburgh's run game is going to be. The Steelers NEED to run the ball to win this game. Arizona's defense has excelled on third downs this postseason, and they have forced a lot of turnovers. Willie Parker will need to gain good chunks of yardage on first and second down to keep the offense on schedule. I don't think as highly of Ben Roethlisberger as many of the experts do, and I think he's going to turn it over a couple of times if he's not dealing with manageable third down situations.

Pittsburgh has been a team that has relied on big play touchdowns all season. Parker is a threat to take it to the house on every play. If he is able to break off a long TD run, Pittsburgh's chances for victory go way up. Willie Parker is a definite dark horse MVP possibility. Nobody is talking about him, and yet he has the potential to have a massive impact on the outcome of this game.


2) How big of a factor are Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm? In my mind this is huge. Perhaps it is being overblown by some people, but I really think it's hard to understate the potential advantage that the Cards can gain from this. I feel compelled to mention Don Nelson's Warriors knocking off the Mavericks a couple of years ago in the playoffs (probably because I hate the Mavericks).

To be honest, I think the guy that is going to have the biggest impact is Grimm. He coached the offensive line, which is a unit that has had a lot of trouble this year. He knows where their weak points are, and he knows how to attack them. If Pittsburgh can't protect Big Ben, they have no shot.

As I'm sure you know, these teams have played once since Whisenhunt and Grimm went to Arizona, and the Cards won.

I've been asking myself this question all day: "If the Steelers knew that they would have to face Whisenhunt and Grimm in the Super Bowl a few years later, would they have made a different decision about their head coaching position?"

Maybe not, because they could only name one of the two head coach.

But, if they could have kept both (maybe Whisenhunt and Grimm as offensive coordinator), then I think they would have done that instead of hiring Tomlin. This is definitely an advantage for Arizona.


3) Adrian Wilson: Everyone is talking about Troy Polamalu (for good reason). But, let's not forget that Adrian Wilson is similarly talented and has the potential to have a huge impact on this game tomorrow. Wilson, probably because he has spent his time in Arizona, has always flown under the radar. I expect him to be everywhere tomorrow, both as a blitzer and breaking up passes. One sack and one interception, that's my prediction for Adrian Wilson's Super Bowl.

If you put 10 bucks on Wilson winning the game's MVP and he does, you get 500 bucks back. Worth a shot.


4) Doesn't Troy Polamalu remind you of Pat Tillman?: The stories of Polamalu staying on the field after the practice lights have gone off and working out remind me of the stories of Tillman meditating atop the Arizona State stadium. Polamalu's quiet and reserved demeanor, his interest in art, and his style of play all remind me of Tillman. He has this sort of enlightened, wise, sage quality to him that I always thought Tillman had. Just a random thought.....

Anyways, as you know if you listened to the podcast, you know that I'm taking Arizona and Babcock is taking Pittsburgh. This is going to be a close one, and I certainly won't be shocked if the Cardinals lose. I think they will lose if Parker has a big day. But, as I said earlier, I don't think very highly of Ben Roethlisberger. Furthermore, I don't think very highly of this Steelers offense. On the other side, I love everything that Arizona is doing right now, and I can't pick against them.

Roomofzen Podcast Episode #8: Stay Classy Tampa Bay

On today's snowed in Super Bowl week edition, Babcock and I breakdown the matchups between the Steelers and Cardinals, review some of the prop bets available for Sunday's showdown, offer some creative marketing ideas for the 43 strip clubs (as reported by the AP) within the Tampa city limits, and make our bold predictions as to which team will hoist the Lombardi Trophy (and, unlike our last episode, we actually disagree).

We also concede that Kurt Warner is more than just a figure for us to mock, remember some of Babcock's harder years, make our predictions as to how the Eastern Conference will shake out in the NBA, and ponder the identity of the Phoenix Suns.

Please enjoy....



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We also discuss 2001 Odyssey, which according to the AP article is a Tampa Strip club with a space ship shaped VIP room on top of it. Here is a photo:







Apparently Sonic does exist:



Also, here is the story of Bernie Notte, the 43 year old Mons Venus waitress who pulling her stilletos out of the closet in order to bring in the super bowl week cash.




Drive By Truckers: Never Gonna Change

Weekend Predictions...

Obviously, what I say here means nothing. There is no way to predict this NFL season, which has been one crazy twist after another. I would just say that I am looking forward to enjoying all four games as an impartial observer (I am even going to work hard not to root against the Eagles in the NFC Championship). I have a lot to say about one game, and not much to say about the other.


First....



That still happened, and I need to keep reminding myself of that in order to keep a healthy perspective on things.




Here we go:


NFC: Cardinals (+3) over Eagles: It's becoming more and more clear that the Cardinals started leaving their playbook at home on Sundays after they clinched. We thought they had abandoned the run. Teams were blowing them out because they knew exactly what to expect and Arizona wasn't showing anything new. I've heard them scorned by a lot of people for this over the past week, and I can't understand why. They play in a shitty division. That's not their fault. Every little edge counts in the NFL, and this was a brilliant move.

I love the type of momentum that Arizona has heading into this weekend. Larry Fitzgerald has looked like Spiderman. Even with Anquan Boldin out of the lineup, Fitzgerald has elevated the level of his play (which I didn't think was possible given the great year that he had) in the playoffs. Boldin will be back this week, and frankly I don't see how the Eagles secondary can stop these guys.

Don't get me wrong, the Philly secondary has been good for a long time. But, you can beat them with size. That's always been the case. That's why Plaxico Burress was such a big signing for the Giants in 2005 (and such a huge loss in 2008). Fitzgerald and Boldin are mutants. Remember the receivers that Warner had with the greatest show on turf? These guys are bigger and better.

On the other side, the Arizona defense has been underrated all season long. They were among the top units in the entire NFL in takeaways. They already have 7 interceptions so far in the postseason (although I'd be shocked if Donovan McNabb helped them out the same way Jake DelHomme did). I love the way they play, and every time I watch them I'm shocked at how underrated they are (Dansby, Okeafor, Berry, Wilson, DR-C).

Finally, the Cardinals always play well at home. This game sold out fast, so it should be loud. We all know that Kurt Warner requires near-artificial conditions, completely free of any wind, cold, or precipitation to throw the ball well. There could not be a more perfect place for this game to be taking place than in Arizona.

The Cards offense looks unstoppable. They will be playing at home. They'll be getting one of their superstars back. I just don't understand how they could be underdogs in this one.


Pittsburgh (-1) over Baltimore: I hate to say it, but I just don't see Baltimore winning this one. You could talk to me all day about the Raven's defense (which I respect a great deal), and you will not convince me that they are better than this Pittsburgh defense. Joe Flacco has a bright future, but he will not move the chains against these guys. That Baltimore defense looks beat up. I get the sense that Baltimore has proven their point. People were ignoring them. Now they have their respect. In a snowy, frigid night game in Pittsburgh, I'm taking the Steelers. I hope I'm wrong.

Roomofzen Podcast Episode #7: Looking Ahead to 2009

We've been kept at bay by some technical issues over the past month or so, but I'm happy to say that we are back in full force. In this New Years edition, Babcock and I weigh in on the firing of Mike Shanahan, pick the Wild Card Weekend matchups, name our MVP, and name the Roomofzen Sportsman of the year in 2008.



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Neil Young and Pearl Jam:




Neil is playing the same black guitar he was playing when we saw him in Worcester a few weeks ago, and the same black guitar he was playing in the 1970s. Everyone have a happy and safe New Years Eve.