NBA Finals Prediction: The Unavoidable Teabag

This long layover between the conference finals and the finals has really brought me back down to Earth. If I had written this preview on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, or even Wednesday, I'd be picking the Magic. Playoff excitement will do that to you sometimes. You get swept up in one team's momentum, and it causes you to lose sight of reality, and you find yourself clinging to shreds of hope that symbolize what would make this postseason the most memorable. For me, last year, this phenomenon led to me trying to convince everyone that the New Orleans Hornets were going to make a run all the way to the NBA finals. It's fun to root for these new and exciting teams. It's like rooting for Santa Clause. This year, it seems to have manifested itself in my misplaced "belief" that the Magic had all the right kind of mojo going on right now to beat the Lakers, therefore making the Celtics look great for having taken them to 7 games in round 2. Luckily, this waiting period has calmed me, and I am now bringing you a very grounded and realistic perspective. My emotions have settled and I am thinking more clearly. That 5-day handgun waiting period law really does make a lot of sense.


Before I begin to make my prediction, I'd like to state that unlike the people at Nike and those fucks at the league office, I am thrilled that we didn't end up with a Kobe LeBron finals, because I believe the Lakers are superior to the Cavs in every way, and it would have been one of the most anti-climactic moments in sports history.


Now, you can certainly make a compelling case for the Magic:



I ripped into Dwight Howard earlier in this postseason for still needing to develop effective post moves. However, as I have watched him more and more during these playoffs (I basically never watch the Magic during the regular season if they are not playing the Celtics), I have finally arrived at an appreciation for what a dominant force he actually is. That I always thought him overrated was just a product of me not realizing exactly how athletic he was. His ability to run the court is tremendous for a big man, and he is a very dangerous player when he moves his defender out of the paint and they run pick and rolls with him. In transition, his ability to get down the court quickly and establish position leads to a lot of easy buckets and trips to the free throw line.

Rashard Lewis is a matchup nightmare for anybody. It's hard to imagine Pau Gasol defending him out on the perimeter. He and Hedo turkoglu, with their size and shooting range, give any defenders nightmares. Rafer Alston's quickness could give Derek Fisher trouble. Mikael Pietrus and Courtney Lee have been playing at an incredibly high level throughout the postseason. Marcin Gortat has done a great job of spelling Dwight.

The play of the Magic has improved steadily throughout these playoffs, and it's hard to imagine them playing at a higher level than they are right now. Were it not for two incredibly heroic LeBron James performances, they would have swept the Cavs. They've played the Lakers twice this season, and won both games.

It all seemed to make sense around this time yesterday. You can't argue with that type of momentum.




However, as I slept last night I started envisioning how this thing will actually go, and I woke up this morning feeling very centered and having no doubt in my mind that the Lakers will win this series. Here's why:

- Yes, the Magic are 2-0 against the Lakers this season. However, Jameer Nelson dominated in both of those games, and they were still very very close. Plus, I would imagine that these matchups carried much more urgency for the Magic than they did for LA.

- LeBron James absolutely tore the Magic apart. But, nobody was there to help him. I expect Kobe to do the same thing as LeBron, but there will be some key differences: A) Kobe's coach will be sure to get him the ball in favorable scoring positions B) Kobe has a more polished game, and can score down low with his back to the hoop C) Unlike LeBron, Kobe has good teammates and getting them involved makes the team play better. The statistical impact may not be as great as what we saw from LeBron, but the overall impact (I expect) will have a much more profound effect on the series.

- Do you feel like the Lakers were ever really tested in this postseason? They certainly let their guard down against a Yaoless, Tmacless, pesky Houston team. But, there was no sense of panic, no real sense of worry. That was the most un-game-7-like game 7 I've ever seen. There was never any doubt, and they really don't even seem labored at this point. Just taking care of business.

- We've all spent so much time this season talking about how difficult it is to defend Rashard Lewis (well, at least I know Celtics fans have ever since KG went down). However, in this case, it is also very fair to ask how Rashard Lewis will defend Pau Gasol, who (kill me please) is an increbly saavy and versatile scorer inside (I hate him so much). He will give Lewis fits, and he will also most likely draw some key fouls against both Lewis and Dwight.

- You can't lose sight of Lamar Odom in the Rashard Lewis discussion. The best way to defend a 6'10 tweener with range is with another 6'10 tweener with range. With the exception of KG, who could be better suited to defend Rashard Lewis than Lamar Odom?

- DJ Mbenga is 7 feet tall and can eat up fouls against Dwight.

- Trevor Ariza is a very athletic ballhawk, and I think he will do a good job defending Hedo Turkoglu (to whom he only gives up 2 inches).

- Dwight and Kobe will both spend a great deal of time at the free throw line in this series. Big advantage: Lakers. The Cavs shot free throws horribly last round. Dwight, obviously, is shaky at the line (yes, I know he shot 70% last round....call me when he does it over the course of a season).


The Prediction: Lakers in 6. I've been preparing for this since KG went down in February.