It's looking more and more like there may not be a week 13 picks podcast. There are no rifts or disputes. Things are just as harmonious as ever here at the roomofzen. But, we've all got to hit the road for Thanksgiving.
I was a pathetic 9-7 last week, but I always bounce back:
Tennessee over Detroit: I really like this Detroit team in the same way I liked the '06-'07 Celtics. I watched that Celtics team every night, even though I knew the odds of them winning were very slim each time (especially once they started trying to lose on purpose). But, they were fun to watch. They worked really hard. I was watching Rajon Rondo and Al Jefferson come of age. Anybody who watched that spring was probably not surprised to see Leon Powe come on strong in the playoffs last year. Their effort and potential made me feel a lot better about watching them lose constantly. I assume Detroit fans feel the same way. There is nothing shameful about the way this Lions team is losing. They play hard. Calvin Johnson is turning out highlight reel caliber catches every week. Daunte Culpepper is making a lot of mistakes, but it's an exciting change and at least he's airing it out. I appreciate the way they've been able to go 0-11, and I actually look forward to watching them on Thanksgiving. That being said, they can't stop the run and that does not bode well. The Titans are giving 11 here and I like them to cover.
Dallas over Seattle: Dallas finally got back to business last week. I expect them to hold form on Thanksgiving. Don't be deceived, though, by two straight lopsided home wins against NFC West teams. I don't think they can do this against everyone, and I expect them to continue underachieving. Dallas giving 10.5, and I expect them to cover. I'd like to thank the NFL for these riveting Thanksgiving Day matchups.
Philadelphia over Arizona: You need to separate yourself from everything you see on ESPN. Think for yourself please. Look, the Eagles have the 6th best defense and the 9th best offense in the NFL. They are not a bad team. The Cardinals, despite everything that we see and hear, are flawed. Their run game is weak. They have also turned in piss poor performances on the East coast. Kurt Warner is having a great year, but he does have a tendency to cough the ball up against pressure. The Eagles are at home. They've been listening all week to experts discussing them as if they are no better than the Rams or Lions. Jim Johnson will bring heavy pressure against the Cards. I like Philly here.
This is an NFL Network game, which is too bad. It's tough to leave the family to go to a bar to watch football.
One more thought here: I would like nothing more than to see Donovan McNabb go somewhere new after this season, win a super bowl, and rub it in the faces of Philadelphia fans. They booed him on the way in. All he did was make the Eagles one of the NFL's top teams for over half a decade despite being surrounded, for most of the time, by receivers that are not good enough to start for anybody else (James Thrash, Todd Pinkston, Freddie Mitchell.....). The one good receiver his organization brought in is a cancer. McNabb has gotten no help from this organization. He's laid his body on the line time and time again. People seemed to turn a negative eye on him after the Rush Limbaugh situation, over which he had no control. And now, because this team is not good enough or healthy enough to compete in the NFC East, Philly fans are disrespecting him on the way out. This guy has done a great job. If you want to point the finger, point it at Andy Reid. He pulled McNabb at halftime of a 3 point game! In doing so, he put a young Kevin Colb out there against the Baltimore Ravens defense! In doing so, he ensured a loss for his team.
Buffalo over San Francisco: Marcus Stroud will stuff Frank Gore. Marshawn Lynch will go for over 100, and the Bills will control this one throughout. Mike Singletary dropping his pants on the sideline to reveal a pair of long johns would be priceless.
Indy over Cleveland: Brady Quinn is done for the year, which means Derek Anderson and his sub-50% completion rate are back. The Colts are starting to look like one of those teams that could go from the wildcard spot to the super bowl.
Baltimore over Cincinnati: The Bengals have 10 days rest, which means absolutely nothing here but I think I should mention it. The Ravens are giving 7 here and they should cover. They have been playing very sound football, and I expect them to keep Cincy out of the end zone.
Another note here: Ocho Cinco was benched last week because he refused his assistant coaches orders to sit up straight in his chair during a team meeting. This went on until Chad walked out. Now, I'm not condoning Chad's actions. He does make millions to do his job. BUT, this story makes me very curious to learn more about the priorities of the Bengals coaching staff. We've got guys breaking the law left and right. Chris Henry never missed any more time than what the NFL mandated despite numerous brushes with the law. We've got guys arguing with each other on the sidelines constantly. We've had guys publicly scorning their front office and coaches. Really, this team has NEVER taken action against one of their players unless the NFL mandated it. And yet, Chad Ocho Cinco finds himself suspended for refusing to sit up straight. I can't believe they even asked him to sit up straight. It's like trying to fill the grand canyon with a garden hose.
Carolina over Green Bay: The Panthers are pretenders. There's no question. We saw their true colors last week. However, they can run the ball, and Green Bay's run defense has been VERY shotty. My gut tells me to go with the Packers at home here, but my head says Carolina stuffs it down their throats.
Miami over St. Louis: There is no line for this game. From what I hear, it's because people are waiting to hear some injury news for the Rams (I think Marc Bulger). Rather than delve into it, I'll handicapp it. Miami is on the road, and I like them -8.5 .
Tampa Bay over New Orleans: The Saints are back on the road, and this has let down written all over it. Drew Brees is, in my opinion, the MVP right now. This team would not have won a single game without his brilliant play. They've been incredibly banged up, and his play has not faltered. Brees will play well in this one, but it won't be enough.
Giants over Washington: I've had this game pegged for a Giants loss for the past month. However, the play of the Redskins has really declined since then. Big Blue will keep the Skins' running game in check, and that means trouble for the Washington offense. The wildcard factor here is Sean Taylor being inducted into the Redskins Ring of Fame and how that will affect the emotions of the game.
San Diego over Atlanta: I hate to do this. Atlanta looks great, and San Diego is never going to come around. But, this game is on the West Coast, and I think the Chargers will be looking to bounce back. They could overtake Denver in the AFC West, not that it matters. Whoever wins the AFC West will get dumped by a wild card team (potentially Indy).
Pittsburgh over New England: This will be a great game. Matt Cassell has looked outstanding, but I don't think he can replicate those numbers in this one. The Steelers defense is just too good. At the same time, Pittsburgh can't run the ball and they do not do a good job protecting Big Ben. Pittsburgh wins this one in the final minutes.
Broncos over Jets: This is a bad pick, but I can't take this media lovefest with the Jets anymore. I can't stand people on ESPN comparing the Jets and Packers. You'd have to literally know nothing about football to say that the Jets are in a better position than the Packers right now. Favre was a temporary solution. Where do they go after this season? Aaron Rodgers and those young Packers receivers have a bright, bright future. I hate the Jets. The Broncos have a horrible defense, but they can put up a lot of points. I guess I'm picking that Cutler outslings Favre.
Oakland over Kansas City: Oakland is better than you think. They are undeniably better than Kansas City.
Vikings over Bears: I like the Vikings at home. Kyle Orton doesn't look totally healthy and I don't think Matt Forte has a big day against the Vikings run defense.
Houston over Jacksonville: This game sucks. I feel like everyone overestimates the Jags because, like the Chargers, we all expect them to come around eventually. They won't. They're not good. Houston is not good either, but I think they are more likely to come up with some big plays from Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton.
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