roomofzen

The Clemens Affair (Part Two)

“What is the possibility of Bush pardoning Clemens, considering the player’s close relationship to the former president?”

For those of you who don’t know, Brian McNamee’s lawyer is now saying that President Bush could give Roger Clemens a "prospective pardon." Apparently his lawyer hates Bush, and wants to somehow make a link between Clemen’s relationship to Bush Senior and the possibility that W will repeat what Gerald Ford did to Nixon:

“It would be the easiest thing in the world for George W. Bush, given the corrupt proclivities of his administration, to say Roger Clemens is an American hero, Roger Clemens helped children…It’s my belief they have some reason to believe they can get a pardon.”

"It would be a prospective pardon…They're perfectly legal and it would be typical of the George Bush White House. We'd expect Bush to call Clemens a 'historic figure' who has done so much for this country and then let him off."

Before we discuss whether or not this may happen, let’s review the facts:

1. Clemens has not been investigated for doing anything illegal, let alone charged of breaking the law. Media pundits, however, have suggested that if evidence were to surface that proves Clemens was doing HGH, there is a strong possibility he could be investigated for lying to Congress.

2. As the US Today points out, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform could ask the Justice Department to investigate whether or not Clemens lied to Congress. The Justice Department could also launch a probe on their own. None of these things have happened yet.

3. For a traditional pardon or commutation (more on this later) to occur: Clemens has to be investigated, charged, and then proved guilty before a federal grand jury. A prospective pardon, however, could occur without any of these things happening.

I could launch into an angry diatribe right now, arguing how ridiculous Emery’s statements are, but I think Clemen’s lawyer had a good response to them:

“First of all, Roger is never going to be convicted of anything, and second, he (the president) is never going to do that…It is the most irresponsible and unbelievable statement in a long line of irresponsible and unbelievable statements from those guys.

"He's just crazy.'"

"He's got to stop smoking his own dope." (My favorite response)

Pardons

So now let’s talk about the possibility of a traditional pardon, assuming evidence comes out of left field which proves Clemens is undoubtedly lying. Pardons are one of the most controversial things a president can do. Remember HW pardoning the Iran-Contra perps or Clinton pardoning Marc Rich? All of these pardons share one thing in common: they pissed off a lot of people.

The Constitution, however, is very clear about the President’s power to pardon citizens: he has the right to do it no matter what the person did and his decision is not reversible by anyone (courts, congress). The president can commute someone’s prison term, too; this means they don’t have to serve jail time, but their crime is still on the books. And while a person can refuse a presidential pardon, they usually don’t and the types of people who get pardons are always pretty interesting (Rich, a former commodity trader, Nixon the former president, and a member of the Deliverance movie cast under George W)

A "prospective pardon" is even more controversial: the President has the power to nullify all crimes that could be proved, but haven't yet. This is what happened between Ford and Nixon -- Ford said Nixon would be absolved of all crimes before they were even proven. Yes, this is ridiculous amount of power. Imagine Bush making a blanket prospective pardon on himself and his entire staff. That would piss of a lot of people!

So far, President Bush has ordered about 113 pardons and four sentence commutations. What’s important to note about these numbers and other presidential pardons is that:

1. Bush has only granted pardons to people who have fully served their sentences. Clinton, on the other hand, pardoned people such as Rich, who were currently serving jail time.

2. W’s dad only pardoned 77 people, putting him near the bottom of the list. He also had to deal with the fallout from Iran-Contra. Also note that FDR pardoned over 3000 people, which is badass.

3. According to the very knowledgeable people at University of Pittsburgh law school, Bush has been burned by a bad pardoning (he pardoned a guy for drug dealing and two months later he was arrested again).

4. Bush does not have a reputation for granting a lot of pardons (from the link above):

“during his prior term as Governor of Texas, George W. issued fewer pardons than any Texas Governor since the 1940s (16 up to January 2000, as opposed to 70 for his immediate predecessor Ann Richards, 822 for 2-term governor Bill Clements, and 1048 for John Connally, Texas governor from 1963-69)”

5. Hillary Clinton is running for president, and her husband (politics aside) made a number of extremely controversial pardons towards the end of his term:

http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB120277819085260827.html

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2001/feb2001/rich-f21.shtml

6. None of his pardons have been "prospective pardons."

The Verdict on a Pardon

If I were a betting man, I’d put my money on Clemens getting investigated, but not being charged with a crime. Right now the public scrutiny is too intense for the government “not to do anything.” But considering how obvious it is that Clemens is lying, my sense is that his lawyers do not believe there is damning evidence out there. Call me cynical, but I think Clemen’s lawyers know there’s no way the government could prove he did HGH other than statements from McNammee. And McNammee is a flawed witness no matter what you say: the guy is a drug dealer. So no evidence, no conviction; Clemens is safe.

The probability of any Bush pardon (traditional or prospective) is also very small. Why, you ask?
- Bush has still not pardoned one of his close friends and inner-circle employees (Scooter Libby)

- Bush has never pardoned someone who has not served out their full sentence (see above)

- Bush is generally against pardons (see above) and has been burned by a bad pardon

- Pardons make the party and the president look bad, and if McCain is running a tight race for the White House, I doubt Bush would do something this incendiary

- Just because his dad is friends with Clemens, does not mean Bush will treat Clemens any differently.

- Bush has deep respect for the game of baseball since he used to be an owner. He’s also come out and said very publicly that he’s disappointed in all the drug use and tarnishing of the game. Why, then, would Bush provide amnesty for someone so obviously guilty of drug use? It wouldn’t look very good considering his background in baseball.

I suppose it is possible to see Bush pardoning a rash of people before we leaves, but as I mentioned above, if the presidential race is tight, he may not. And if Clemens does get investigates and then charged for perjury, I doubt Bush will still be in office.

Verdict: McNammee’s lawyer is full of crap for even suggesting that Bush would pull a Ford and pardon crimes that haven't been investigated, let alone prosecuted in the future. The Nixon pardon was incredibly controversial and let's remember this guy was behind Watergate, not guilty of doing HGH....