I can't handle the summer lull anymore. It's July 16th, which means we're more than halfway through July, which means that football season is almost here. Pretty soon, the season previews will be coming out, and everyone will begin making preliminary decisions about how to best approach their fantasy drafts. Well, I can't wait until August. So, I'm going to start with my division previews today. Each week, I'll give you my thoughts on two divisions and I'll pick a winner in each. This week, we have one that is very clear cut, and one that is a little more difficult to predict.
AFC EAST:
There have been a lot of changes in this division, and yet the song remains the same. Last time I checked, the Patriots still have Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Laurence Maroney, Richard Seymor, Adalius Thomas, and Rodney Harrison. And while a repeat of last year's perfect regular season is unlikely, the prospect of the Patriots finding themselves at the top of the AFC playoff picture once again seems almost certain. I expect New England to win the East by a comfortable margin, and to be the sole AFC East representative in the playoffs.
While I am already penciling the Patriots in for the post-season, I do expect their division title this season to look much different than it did last season. This is not the cupcake division that it was last year. I love what the other three teams are doing. And, if I were a Patriots fan, I would not take these division games lightly.
Let's quickly look at the Jets. First, they added Alan Faneca and Damien Woody to go along with D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold on the offensive line. They also added Tony Richardson at fullback. This should help to open up more holes for Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, who I expect to be an effective tandem. The addition of Bubba Franks gives them another solid receiving option at tight end to go along with Chris Baker (note here, Bubba Franks was a great unsung fantasy hero from my college years. Favre used to find him in the end zone all the time). On defense, I think that Kris Jenkins and Calvin Pace were great acquisitions. I don't expect Vernon Gholston to have the impact that many experts do. I don't think that those combine numbers show up on the field. But, those experts get paid for their opinions and I don't. So, if he is the player that many expect, then this team is headed in a great direction. Finally, let's not forget that Laverneus Coles (I love it when Berman calls him Laverneus Coleslaw) and Jerricho Cotchery are both very productive in that offense. I really want to highlight the Miami Dolphins, who are really getting things turned around quickly. First, it was a great move to bring on Bill Parcells. Regardless of how many new detractors emerge from all of his previous stops, nobody can deny Parcells' track record when it comes to reviving franchises that have stumbled on hard times (New York, New England, the other New York, and Dallas).
I love the miami defense right now. They have Jason Taylor, Jason Ferguson, and Vonnie Holiday on the defensive line (note: people have laughed in my face when I have mentioned Vonnie Holiday, but he was off to a great start before breaking his ankle last season, and he was great in 2006). They have Joey Porter, Channing Crowder and Akin Ayodele at linebacker.
They brought in Reggie Torbor, who is a versatile linebacker that can step in and make plays (and has a lot of big game experience after last season). The secondary is not great, but I really like Will Allen. I thought he got a somewhat raw deal in New York. Overall, this defense has the potential to give a lot of offensive coordinators headaches......just not the Patriots. On offense, there is certainly potential. Ronnie Brown was running well before his injury. Jake Long could be a cornerstone of the offensive line for the next decade. At the very least, we know that Ted Ginn is fast and that he became a bigger part of the offense in the second half of last season. Ernest Wilford is a nice guy to have in the red zone. David Martin and Anthony Fasano are solid tight ends. And, of course, there is always the ultimate wildcard:
All of that being said, you can't feel confident about the quarterback situation. Josh McCown is not a bad place holder, and I believe that he could manage the offense very efficiently if Miami can run the ball. But, what is the long term answer here? Is it really John Beck? Many believe so, seeing as how they passed on Brady Quinn and Matt Ryan.
Buffalo, not to be outdone, has also added some nice pieces in this off-season. They had Kawika Mitchell signed on at linebacker before I had even fully gotten rid of my hangover after the Super Bowl. This was a good addition, but it pales in comparison to the significance of the trade that they made to acquire Marcus Stroud from Jacksonville.
Stroud is a force that should immediately help this Bills defense by occupying blockers and allowing the linebackers to make more tackles. He will also make it more difficult for opposing offenses to give necessary attention to Aaron Schobel. On offense, there are certainly weapons. We know that Lee Evans, Josh Reed, and Roscoe Parrish are a very effective group. In particular, Evans can really stretch the field. Marshawn Lynch had a great rookie campaign, and he should show a good deal of improvement this season.
Biz Markie, 1989, sick:
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AFC NORTH:
Where do you even begin with this division? As has been the case over the past four or five years, I have no idea.
Let's start with Cincinnati. This is a team that could go either way in my mind. On the surface, it seems like they are bursting apart at the seams. I have asked myself time and time again how Marvin Lewis could still be the head coach of the Bengals. Most coaches whose teams have underachieved like this would not have survived last season. And yet, the organization is standing behind Lewis publicly, which is particularly surprising given the off-the-field incidents and the media circus that have accompanied the on-the-field disappointments of 2006 and 2007.
But, then again, who knows. Maybe Frank Costanza was on to something when he created the "airing of grievances" component to the celebration of Festivus. I can remember being completely full of rage in January of 2007, when it was announced that Tom Coughlin had been given a one year extension to coach the Giants. The team, in my mind, had completely unraveled. After a promising start, they had completely gone down the shitter in the second half of the year. On top of that, players were openly critical of the coaching staff, management, and each other in the media. Standing behind Coughlin and extending his contract given the circumstances were unfathomable to me. But, something strange happened. The Giants returned in 2007 as a closer and much more unified team. I don't know exactly what the saying is about having to hit rock bottom before you can rise, but they had. So have the Bengals, you would have to think.
The potential is still there for them to be great. The offensive firepower is still tremendous and the additions of Antwan Odom and Keith Rivers should help to improve that defense. Chad Johnson is always mouthing off. But, as we have seen from his most recent statements, he will be in camp. And, if he's on the field, you know that he's going to perform. I feel a big year from Carson Palmer. And, if nothing else, I expect this team to finish with at least an 8-8 record. But, as has been the case all along, the ceiling for them is much higher.
The Ravens are better than 5-11. Their Monday night loss to New England last season reminded us all that they were still good enough on defense to contend with anybody. As a side note, the performance that Willis McGahee turned in that night was one of my favorite individual performances of the season. However, we are now about half a year removed from that 5-11 season, and while there are several big changes, it is difficult to say whether or not those changes will translate to improvement on the field.
Brian Billick is gone, and John Harbaugh is in. There were a lot of rumors swirling around that many players on the defense wanted Rex Ryan to be the new head coach. You have to wonder how the decision is going to sit with them. But, in the long run this could be positive, as many believed that Ray Lewis was actually running the team's front office as well as calling the plays in the defensive huddle.
This change might be exactly what the Ravens need.
They haven't made any personnel changes on the field, which means that they are clearly happy with the players that they have. And, who wouldn't be? Ray Lewis, Bart Scott, Kelly Gregg, Chris McCallister, Ed Reed, Samari Rolle, and Willis McGahee. This is a talented group of guys. I think that there is serious potential with this new coaching staff. The ravens retained Rex Ryan to run the defense, and added Cam Cameron as the offensive coordinator. Remember, Cameron was extremely successful in the same role for San Diego. With Willis McGahee, Ray Rice, Mark Clayton, Derrick Mason, and Todd Heap in the offense, you'd think Cameron would be able to run a balanced offense and spread the ball around. But, there's one MAJOR problem....... The Ravens have to figure out their quarterback situation. I thought that Kyle Boller played reasonably well last year, and I think he will enter this season as the team's starter. Remember, Gus Frerotte was a pro bowler under Cameron. He also developed Trent Green, Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers. So, Boller deserves this chance. But, if things don't start well, expect to see Troy Smith or 2008 first round pick Joe Flacco. It will be interesting how things play out. But, Boller has the most experience, and I think he is the Ravens best chance for success this season.
I really like the direction in which Cleveland is headed. Braylon Edwards, Donte Stallworth, and Kellen Winslow make up a nice group of pass cathcers (note: Joe Jurevicius has had a rough off-season. At his age ((33)) it's hard to know how much, if any, of a factor he can be). Jamal Lewis had a great year last year, and will be running behind a very strong offensive line (Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, and Hank Fraley). It sounds like Derek Anderson, fresh off his first pro bowl, will be the starter on opening day. And, Brady Quinn is an extremely competent backup. On defense, the Browns have picked up Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers to go with Robaire Smith. They will be very strong up front. And, of course, Josh Cribbs is one of the most dangerous special teams players in the NFL.
Much like the Bengals and Ravens, it's hard to predict where the Browns will finish. If things play out similarly to last season, I expect them to finish second in the division with a strong chance to clinch a wild card spot. However, if Baltimore or Cincinnati play up to their potential, it's hard to say for sure that the Browns are the best of the three. There is really a lot of uncertainty in this division.
What I am certain about is that I'd be crazy to pick anybody other than the Steelers to take the AFC North crown. Unlike these other teams, there aren't a whole lot of questions to be answered. Sure, I think that Ben Roethlisberger is overrated. But, he knows how to manage a game. And, with the weapons he has around him (Willie Parker, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward), that shouldn't be too hard to do. On top of that, I really liked the selections of Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed. These two have the potential to step in and contribute right away. And, defensively, they are incredibly strong. Let's just spout some names off: Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton, James Farrior, Larry Foote, James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, Troy Polamalu, Deshea Townsend, and Ike Taylor. This team is loaded on both sides of the ball, and I expect them to take this division title. But, I expect a lot of entertaining games along the way.
Next week: the AFC South, the AFC West, and my AFC playoff predictions.
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