Before I move on to my predictions, I want to touch on this Bill Simmons piece about KG, and some of the conversations that I have had with people since it came out. As much as I love Simmons, I can't get behind this piece. Ted e-mailed it to me immediately after it came out with the question of "why is this coming out now?" Neither of us could think of an answer.
I would say "why write this piece at all?" But, in fairness to Simmons, he has been expressing these worries about KG throughout for the past couple of months. So then, the ultimate question is about the timing. The Celtics are still in the thick of things, and this piece is going to have no validity if the Celtics win a championship. Ted thought that Simmons might have some type of ulterior motive with the piece. Perhaps it was intended to bring out more in KG, or perhaps it was written as some type of reverse-jinx. Simmons does this stuff a lot, and frankly as a reader I could do without it. If this article was written for these purposes, then he just wrote a magazine article wasting every one's time.
Regardless of when and why it was written, I can't help but be totally opposed to the sentiments expressed in it. I expressed these feelings in a posting exchange with Jim over at Green Bandwagon . Jim wrote a great piece about the way that we have a tendency to view a performance from a guy like Tim Duncan differently than we might view a performance from KG because our our pre-conceived notions. I thought this posting was particularly relevant in the wake of the Simmons piece.
Here is an excerpt of my response: "Jim, this is a great post. I particularly enjoy it after reading Simmons article about KG on ESPN.com. I love Simmons, but I really hate that article. The guy was brought aboard the team with the second worst record in the NBA. Within months, he completely changed the culture of the team, led the charge in the biggest turnaround in history, and re-ignited a once proud fan base. What could be more clutch than that?
I’ve always said (even when he was on the T-Wolves) that I didn’t see why everyone was so convinced that Duncan was better than him. Certainly, Duncan has the rings, but KG’s career isn’t over and he would have won those same rings in the same position. He may not guard big men quite as well, but I think he’s equal as an overall team defender and I certainly think that he runs the floor better."
Jim's response was: "About three months back the whole Bird vs. KG thing flared up and I came down strongly on Bird’s side in part because I’d want the ball in his hands at the end of a game. And someone pointed out that Bill Russell wasn’t a scorer down the stretch either. I liked that comparison in a way. Why does everyone compare KG to Kobe Bryant? No one does it the other way around. Garnett brings way more to the table than he takes away from it."
I found this exchange particularly satisfying and reassuring. I love Jim's comparison with Russell, and I stick to my guns that Duncan hasn't done anything in San Antonio that KG couldn't have done.
Look, as I said, KG totally changed the culture of this team in a matter of months. If that's not clutch, I don't know what is. He has led the charge for one of the greatest defenses in NBA history. He affects the game in so many ways that don't show up on the stat sheet. He gives everything he has to the Celtics every night. We're down to the final four now and anything could happen. Are we really going to put it on his shoulders if this team doesn't win a championship?
Tim Armstrong with Lars and the Bastards:
Viking is a good disc.
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PREDICTION #1: The Celtics Will Out the Pistons in Five Games
For the record, this is not something new that I am predicting after watching Game 1. In my playoff predictions post back in April, I wrote for my Eastern Conference Finals prediction "Celtics over Pistons in 5-- Easier than you think." Now, some of my predictions were shaky (Phoenix over San Antonio, Washington over Cleveland, Tornoto over Orlando) but some were right on (from the first round: "Detroit in 6-- Philly will make it tough") and three of my final four are still in the picture so I feel pretty good.
So, I believed in April that the Celtics would beat Detroit in five games. I stated on Monday, before this series got going, that "I'm confident because this will be a hard fought series between two teams that play the same style, and the Celtics play that style better." Game 1 affirmed this. I think the Celtics will capture their first playoff road wins in this series. And, as is typical with this Detroit team, I expect the Celtics to win the series easily even though it always feels close.
Will I be surprised if it goes 6 or 7? No. How could you be after the last two series. But, I'm sticking with 5.
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PREDICTION #2: Michael Strahan will be Back on the Field Next Year
Come on, we've done this before. And not just with Michael Strahan. If he was really going to retire, he would have already announced it. Strahan wants something. Last year, he didn't want to go to training camp. He probably feels the same way this year, which is fine with me (has Orlando Pace ever been to one?). There have also been a lot of reports out there that Strahan wants more money than he is due this season (4 million dollars). But, Strahan's reps have said that money has not been an issue, and the Giants have said that they are willing to fork over more money for Strahan's return. So, if money is an issue, it shouldn't be for long.
I have said many times that Strahan is the key to the Giants making a serious run at at successfully defending their championship, so perhaps this is just wishful thinking on my part. But, keeping the team in limbo to avoid training camp is a tactic that he, and others, have used in the past. Furthermore, it seems like a player that considers retirement for this long winds up on the field more often than not.
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PREDICTION #3: When We Look Back on this PostSeason, Kobe Bryant Will be What We Remember
Look, I hope I'm wrong on this one. I want more than anything to remember this post-season as the year of the Celtics winning banner #17. But, don't you get the feeling that Kobe is in the middle of putting together one of the all-time great playoff runs in history? As I said on Tuesday, I don't see the Spurs winning this series. So, I felt very strange last night going to sleep at around 11 with the Spurs up by 16 points. Ordinarily, I don't turn off Kobe Bryant, but I was exhausted and it just didn't seem like the Lakers had any chance of coming back.
When I woke up this morning, less tired and thinking more clearly, I ran for my computer. I wasn't the least bit surprised to see the headline. In fact, I would have been more surprised to see that San Antonio had closed out the double digit win. That right there tells you something about how great Kobe has been.
Here's the thing. Kobe didn't check out for the first 2 and a half quarters. He was trying to get his teammates involved. This is the player that he's become and that's one of the reasons that he put together an MVP season. He started off playing a team game, and feeling out the way things were going to go for that night. Then, when it became necessary for him to take over, he did. I went to bed right around the end of the "team basketball" portion of the game, but I've seen the Kobe takeover enough times to know what it looks like. Game 2 against Denver is a classic example. But, this was him doing it against the Spurs!
Kobe will continue to involve his teammates in these games, but it must be nice to know that he can win these games on his own if need be. I expect Gasol to match up better against Duncan than he did last night, and I expect the Lakers as a whole to play much better than they showed us in Game 1. Look, the Spurs are the Spurs and they will probably take 2 games. But, I don't even see this going 7.
It hasn't always been nice to be Kobe's teammate, but this year's squad certainly seems to be enjoying it. Kobe is helping them look good on and off the court. Found this article on Ball Don't Lie.
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PREDICTION #4: When The Celtics Have Their Second Unit in Tonight, Jeff Van Gundy Will Say "I Just Don't Think There's Enough Offense on the Floor Right Now for Boston."
Can't he think of something new? Did we have to hear that eight times in two games? I'll add in another prediction, which is that every time Paul Pierce makes a nice play Van Gundy will belittle him by talking about how much he's "improved" and "learned" as if he is some young player who is just now starting to play well. I will then get extremely frustrated and yell at the TV.
4 comments:
this is really weird - i turned off the lakers game at exactly the same moment you did and i had pretty much the same thought process - the spurs are up, maybe kobe will get going, but probably not - it's game one, they can make it up
fast fwd to the morning, i read about kobe and he brought them back into the game...wasnt surprised at all
First off I have to preface this with the fact that I love Garnett, and have since he came into the league. I used to check his box scores in the newspaper when I was in middle school. I own a KG jersey from his rookie year (that still fits me and I wear to games). So you are getting a completely biased opinion. Alright, now that that's behind us:
I really like Jim's response. Garnett doesn't have to be compared to a Kobe or Jordan. He is a completely different player, and he shouldn't be disparaged just because he doesn't hog the ball in the closing minutes. Just in these playoffs he has hit some big late-game shots (Game 1 vs. the Cavs comes to mind). As you and Jim mentioned, his reputation has alot to do with him not getting the recognition for that game, which he completely took over on the offensive end.
I would also point out, like you did, that clutch does not have to fall into the narrow definition that the everyone has given it. You can certainly be clutch on the defensive end. Forcing a bad shot on defense is just as big as hitting a big shot on the offensive end - they both still represent a 2 point swing.
As for the article itself, Durant suggested that Simmons may, at times, mail in his magazine articles (figuratively). I'd say its a decent explanation, but overall strange to say the least.
I also turned off the game around that exact time. I thought the Spurs had it and thought that maybe Kobe's supporting cast isn't as good as we all thought and that the Spurs are going to do it again. Kobe might not need that supporting cast to win it all but I think both teams showed weakness...
Either way, I think this bodes well for the C's, especially if they beat each other up out West. I think Detroit is done because of Billups' injury, so I am cautiously optimistic that Nick's prediction will be right.
I do have to agree with the Sports Guy on KG. He simply looks scared at the end of games. That's the only point. He's not saying that KG isn't a great leader and doesn't deserve credit for the big improvement.
I guess my biggest issue is that to read it, you'd think that Garnett was killing them in tight situations. I just don't get that feeling. It seems to have been a collective collapse in these road games to me, and I think that KG has played great defense this entire post-season.
I listened to a Simmons podcast today that gave me a little more insight into the piece, which I will share tommorow in the post. Don't bother with the podcast, it's bad overall. Maybe the worst one. Tough week for him.
I guess we also have to remember that Simmons does work for ESPN. I'm sure they've heard him say these things before and they want to push it. I just heard them talking about it on the pre-game.
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