Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Foil in the Oven: Some Thoughts on James Posey



You don't need to sell James Posey's worth to me. I understand what a vital piece he was, both on and off the court, to this Celtics championship team. On the court, he is a clutch shooter and a lock-down defender. I'm not going to claim that he is a better sixth man than Manu Ginobli, but I do believe that he did more for this Celtics team than many of the players that finished above him in the sixth man of the year voting (along with Ginobli, he finished behind the following: Barbosa, Terry, Korver, Gordon, Childress, and J.R. Smith).

As great as this Celtics' starting 5 was, they did not always start games well. This was to be expected. The three cornerstones had never played together, and the other two pieces are barely old enough to have a beer. The Celtics bench, led by James Posey, was an essential piece to this team's success. I can't think of how many times I wrote a post about the Celtics after a game and started it off talking about how solid the bench was. Think about it, this team won 66 games. There's no way they do that without the bench being as good as it was.

Posey's importance rose to a whole different level in the post-season (note here, am I the only one that says "a whole nother level" when they speak, but then tries to type it and realizes that nother is not a word?). In fact, it is probably the memory of his post-season play that caused me to speak earlier about his worth in comparison to guys like Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith, and Josh Childress. What more can we say about what this guy gave to us in the post-season? The Celtics stumbled several times in the first two rounds, but Posey never did. His timely post-season three pointers were like clockwork. I'll never forget the one he hit in game four to put the Celtics within one, 81-80. His defense was consistently stifling, even when matched against some of the most prolific scorers in the entire NBA (see LeBron, Kobe). Huge shots, timely stops, taking key charges, getting under opponents' skin while remaining completely calm and collected, Posey delivered these services to us every night during the post-season. During the playoffs, Pat Riley made the public statement that the Miami Heat could not have won the championship in 2006 without Posey. By that point, many of us were thinking the same thing about the Celtics.

Outstanding play aside, it was clear from the very start that Posey was one of the strongest personalities on the roster and a galvanizing force on this team. The legendary hugs that he gave the starters before they stepped out on the court, as painful as they appeared, sent a very clear message to opponents, fans, and anybody else concerned. This was a united front. It was going to take a lot to take this team down, because they were so committed to each other and to their ultimate goal. You could see this in Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen every night when they took the floor. To see it in a role player is more surprising. These Celtics showed us something that seems so rare in sports these days. They were a real team. You could feel the camaraderie coming through your television set each night when you watched them. Think about how many good players there were on this team. And yet, egos never became an issue. This team had great chemistry, and James Posey was a big reason for this.

So, now let's think about big James. He's a two-time NBA champion. He just turned in one of the most memorable seasons a role-player has had in recent memory (the closest thing I can think of is Antwan Jamison with the Mavs in 2004, but I don't really think we can call him a role player, even then). He's got NBA franchises drooling over his defense, his clutch shooting, and all of the other intangibles that he brings wherever he goes. His stock is higher than it has ever been. It is not surprising that he is expected to opt out of his contract, roughly 3.5 million, for next season.

Now, I'm sure that there will be a whole lot of interest. In fact, the buzz around the internet was that the Lakers were already interested in signing Posey, and the backbone with which he might supply them, the day after the Finals ended. I'm sure that Posey would love to be back in Boston, for the right price. But the question that we want to keep in mind here is, how much is too much?

Everything that I have heard indicate the Celtics best shot at re-signing James would be to offer him a mid-level exemption deal. This would put his salary between 5 and a half and 6 million dollars. That's a lot of money for someone that doesn't even start. That's a lot of money for a role player. And, here's what we need to keep in mind. There is a nice core of young Celtics under contract right now. Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis, and Leon Powe all appear to have bright futures ahead of them. Furthermore, the Celtics are very high on Gabe Pruitt. Overpaying for Posey means that the Celtics most likely will not be able to keep this young nucleus in place.

In the short term, there is no question that paying Posey big money would be justifiable. He would no doubt help this team achieve great heights next year, and we'd all be toasting management for shelling out the dough for him. But, think ahead four or five years. What happens if there is no plan in place after the big three retire? Do we want to go through the mid-late 90s all over again? Perhaps I'm being extreme here, but the question is a fair one. We have Pierce. We have Garnett. We have Allen. You can only dump so much money into veterans before you are officially fucking yourself in the future.

Look, I know that it's hard for us to part with someone that was so instrumental in bringing us such a great moment. But, it's harder for me to come to terms with the idea of Rondo and Perk coming back and playing even better next season, and then not being able to retain both of them. I know it's still early in his career, but I want Rondo to be a Celtic for his entire career.

Now, ideally, Posey would be willing to come back for less than what I've described above. I've read a lot of articles about how the Big Three should have been working him as soon as the parade ended last Thursday. But, remember, we don't just want James Posey back. We want the James Posey from last year back. This Celtics season was almost too perfect. Next season might not run so smoothly. The team might not win 66 games. There could be some turmoil. If Posey feels pressured, and agrees to stay for less money than he might have gotten in another situation, his demeanor may change. A James Posey who feels cheated because he took less money to stay with a championship team might not be as valuable if things don't go as planned. In order to get the most that we can from him, the decision to come back needs to be made on his terms.

As I said, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. He might not end up getting offered the kind of money that people are expecting, in which case the Celtics would almost certainly match any offer. But, we'll see. Either way, I couldn't be more grateful for what he brought us in this championship season.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

As much as it kills me, I agree. Look at the successful franchises in any sport, and they do not pay players more than they are worth (excluding MLB, where there is no salary cap). The professional sports landscape is littered with broken franchises due to paying players for a level of play they cannot achieve. Examples include Jermaine O'Neal, Steve Francis, Stephon Marbury, Larry Hughes. The list is endless. These guys were good players when they got their deals but were not the type of players that could carry a team... even though they were paid as such.

Now I know paying a guy $6MM per year is alot different than $15MM to $20MM, but think about all the crappy, overpaid, midpriced Celtics over the years that hamstrung the franchise (I'm looking at you, Mark Blount). Posey was great, he worked hard and almost always stepped up when needed. But overpaying to keep him at the expense of killing your cap in the future is not the way to go. Don't ask me names, but my guess is there are some other hungry vets out there who can play D and hussle around the court who would like to play for the Celts for short money. And from Posey's point of view, I think he should get the best deal he can. He's won two rings. His stock is as high as it will ever be. Sign the last contract of your career for 4 years, $24MM and retire with some cash and a couple rings.

Weeks said...

Excellent points all around. And even though it is the MLB, I think the 2004 Red Sox are a great example. There were a lot of people who wanted to see Pedro, Lowe, and Cabrera back. And there were other players let go as well - Millar and Roberts come to mind. I'd argue that everything with the shortstop position has been a bust but that's besides the point. Bringing back Pedro and Lowe would have cost a lot and hurt the team. Now in the short term - 2005, 2006 the Sox struggled a bit and many felt the management made a huge mistake by not bringing everyone back. However, by 2007 and now we see they knew what they were doing. The Sox have great young talent and continue to fight through injuries. Back to the Celtics. Basketball is different from baseball because of the cap, which Ferrante mentioned. On top of that the C's are built to win now as their stars aren't getting any younger. Yet I think San Antonio showed that a team has to be true to its core and then shuffle in and out the rest. Granted the Spurs got old. Still as much as I like Posey I agree that at a certain point he's going to be out of Boston's price range. Hopefully it doesn't end up as it did with Miami.

Anonymous said...

Posey is a poor man's Antawn Jamison. He's a veteran with leadership skills and a contract that about to expire. Like Jamison, expect him to make his decision based on who else the Celtics end up signing and for how much (Arenas for Antawn).

I doubt he'll take the pay-cut, but if he stays, the Celts have a much higher probability of repeating.

And I hope he stays, too. I really enjoyed watching him play.

Anonymous said...

Do the Cs have the absolute right to match any offer Posey gets?

Nick L. said...

Nope. I believe Posey is unrestricted if he opts out (which he is fully expected to do).