Vegas and the NBA

Today, a question from one our readers:


Ted,

Although I hope to some day, I've never had the Vegas experience. However, everything that I've heard about it and seen about it on TV leads me to believe that it would be the perfect spot for an NBA franchise. I know that the NBA summer league games there attract a lot of attention, and I really think that an NBA franchise could be a hit. I think any hope of this died after all of the problems during all-star weekend there. But, the biggest story of that weekend was Pacman, sorry I mean Adam, Jones and he has nothing to do with the NBA. Some people are worried that there wouldn't be a big enough fan base, but I disagree. I think that a lot of the travel agencies would sell tickets in their packages, and people would go to games on their trips. I think that there would be great entertainment at the shows. I think that a lot of the players would do a lot of public appearances. I think it could be very successful.


After just having been there, what are your thoughts?


Thanks for the question. I think the answer is somewhat complicated and difficult to simplify. But I will try anyway. First, some issues to keep in mind:


The NBA could easily move to Vegas and find a supportive market. Vegas is one of the most populous cities in the West, and due to the casinos and federal government, the city has a growing population with access to available and cheap land. In other words, it has a big existing market with potential for growth.


Think about it: with all the tourists visiting Vegas to gamble, the city has to have a massive population of casino workers and hotel staff looking to stay in town. Also think about the military base, Nellis Air Force Base, which just opened. The base means thousands of federal workers, people who have jobs with longevity and decent pay, will be in the Vegas area.


Also think about the land and building density throughout Clark county. You're in the middle of the goddamn desert and nothing is within 100 miles! To me that means Vegas has a lot of room to grow and as soon as they build a metro or better public transportation, property values in that town will literally sky-rocket. But for now, the availability of cheap land close to the city will prompt development to house the needs of a growing population.


So we've established that there is a potential market base for an NBA team. How about some numbers backing that up? In December, 2007, Clark County declared the population now exceeds 2 million residents. I can think of a few NBA teams that don't have that type of market right now (Bucks, Bobcats). Current estimates place growth at 3 million people by 2019, and 4 million people by 2025. Not bad, I'd say.


Vegas houses a 49 billion dollar industry which thrives on the weak dollar and attracts people from around the world. Also remember that people will always gamble because it's addictive. Population growth, especially in a place where the local economy will NOT take a significant downturn if the economy tanks, is what all sports franchises want to take advantage of. It's basically a recession proof city. So Vegas is here to stay and it will always be making money.


The rationale for a team is almost too good to be true. The area can sustain future growth in infrastructure since it has the world's largest energy producing facility; it has a growing population; it's the entertainment capital of the world; it's a 2-4 hour flight from every major American city; and it has a glamorous reputation. So why the hell not?


My sense is that Vegas will never see a professional sports team despite the characteristics I'm citing. Yes, the city is a perfect fit. Yes, Vegas would be the perfect showcase for NBA talent. Yes, Vegas would become another LA-Celebrity love-fest. But the issue of gambling and organized crime clouds Vegas in a veil of uncertainty.


What's uncertain?


1. If a Vegas team would tarnish the NBA brand in the eye's of it's more conservative fans (either existing or future fans). Most Americans deplore gambling (although most of them do it anyway). Associating the NBA with a gambling city may upset a lot of people who would otherwise follow the league.


2. If players could behave themselves in the City of Sin, avoiding the types of embarrassing mistakes made by Pacman and others. A young guy makes millions of dollars and moves to Vegas where drugs, gambling, and prostitution is pretty much legal. If that's not a recipe for trouble, I don't know what is. And last time I checked, the NBA is obssessed about the public's perception of it's players both on and off the court. Vegas is very risky in this regard.


3. If gambling and organized crime can stay out of the games played there. Like it or not, people will automatically assume that Vegas games can and will be rigged. Will this perception affect an NBA team there negatively?